***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 93 7 0 100 -2.1 -2.5 0.1 -3.1 14.9 17.5 -0.2 1.2 2.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 -1.6 -1.2 -0.2 -3.1 17.9 17.3 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 -3.0 16.8 18.6 1.1 2.7 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -2.1 -3.4 -0.8 -1.1 38.0 37.2 -3.7 -2.8 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 -1.9 -1.6 -0.5 -2.2 26.0 25.3 -1.1 0.7 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 -2.7 -2.4 -2.0 -1.3 28.7 29.5 -2.2 0.5 1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 95 5 0 100 -2.1 -2.3 -0.3 -3.3 16.3 17.0 -0.2 1.0 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 -6.9 -6.8 -2.0 -1.7 27.3 27.5 -5.7 -3.8 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 -1.5 -1.1 -1.1 -2.6 20.9 20.2 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 -2.3 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 24.9 24.9 -1.1 0.5 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 -2.2 -2.1 -1.3 -2.5 21.7 21.9 -1.7 0.7 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 -3.8 -3.4 -1.8 -2.3 22.9 23.2 -2.4 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 -3.4 -3.1 -2.3 -2.8 17.4 18.1 -1.6 0.3 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 92 8 0 100 -1.3 -0.7 -1.1 -2.4 21.6 22.2 0.3 1.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 0.5 -1.5 31.3 31.6 -1.1 1.0 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 -1.8 -1.4 -1.7 -2.3 21.7 22.8 -0.4 1.0 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 -2.0 -1.6 -0.2 -2.9 18.9 19.5 -0.5 0.8 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 -3.9 -2.8 -1.9 -1.8 27.6 26.9 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 91 9 0 100 -1.5 -1.4 0.0 -2.9 18.4 18.4 -0.4 0.8 2.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 -7.9 -6.1 -2.4 -1.6 29.1 29.4 -5.0 -3.5 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 -1.9 -2.0 -0.3 -3.0 15.9 17.1 -0.4 0.9 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 -2.6 -1.6 0.2 -2.7 19.6 20.2 -0.5 0.5 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 -1.7 -1.7 0.1 -2.6 20.8 21.3 -0.1 0.9 2.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 -2.2 -1.5 -1.1 -2.5 21.5 20.7 -0.9 0.2 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 0.1 -2.7 18.7 20.6 -0.5 1.7 2.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 -2.5 -2.4 -1.8 -2.2 20.8 21.0 -1.8 0.2 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 94 6 0 100 -2.3 -2.8 -0.3 -3.3 14.6 16.5 -0.3 0.9 2.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 -2.1 -2.2 -0.7 -1.4 32.6 32.9 -2.2 -0.2 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 -4.5 -3.9 -2.5 -1.8 27.2 27.7 -3.7 -1.6 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 -1.6 -1.7 0.0 -3.1 16.7 17.5 0.2 1.0 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------