***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.1 27.8 38.5 80.1 36.5 39.1 26.4 39.2 44.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 25.3 26.7 34.9 76.1 37.3 36.9 25.1 31.9 33.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 29.4 37.0 39.7 81.5 41.1 39.6 30.4 39.9 52.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 31.2 38.6 45.4 78.8 34.1 36.5 38.6 42.2 63.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 34.1 43.6 47.6 87.5 45.4 42.5 38.5 45.7 53.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 28.6 39.9 49.7 93.9 48.2 44.4 28.1 42.2 49.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 23.9 29.1 34.8 77.8 38.5 38.2 27.3 33.3 41.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 68.4 58.6 51.1 91.6 48.7 45.7 48.8 61.3 76.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 43.5 38.3 48.9 91.3 48.9 45.5 25.5 39.3 51.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 55.1 49.5 51.7 93.1 49.6 46.5 39.7 49.9 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 31.9 40.6 45.9 92.0 49.9 45.5 30.6 40.8 58.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 35.2 46.3 46.1 93.0 50.1 45.9 35.0 46.3 59.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 35.4 44.8 49.1 94.9 49.8 45.4 36.4 45.1 59.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 41.5 48.8 48.1 81.9 40.0 39.9 43.8 57.3 68.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 28.4 30.5 43.6 70.4 31.6 32.2 31.7 49.8 65.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 31.6 40.6 45.7 91.6 47.4 44.2 32.0 42.4 53.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 22.1 24.7 34.6 77.8 36.4 38.3 24.3 33.1 43.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 38.3 47.4 55.5 91.8 47.8 46.1 37.4 48.9 60.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 27.5 26.2 35.6 75.8 37.5 36.6 25.3 37.7 47.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 41.9 53.1 65.4 88.5 44.8 44.8 43.5 55.5 59.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 30.6 42.6 45.0 88.1 46.2 43.9 29.2 43.3 48.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 25.5 27.6 35.5 75.6 36.0 37.2 27.2 32.9 52.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.3 38.3 77.3 38.8 37.3 27.2 34.4 46.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 42.5 50.4 48.8 87.8 45.7 43.5 37.5 56.5 71.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 29.3 29.9 45.7 81.1 37.7 39.5 28.7 39.7 49.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 28.7 38.8 48.3 91.0 46.6 42.9 32.3 39.0 49.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.7 32.9 42.2 81.2 37.9 39.7 32.3 38.7 52.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 27.0 29.4 44.1 77.6 35.0 35.9 28.2 42.3 55.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 60.4 62.6 58.6 89.6 44.4 45.1 51.4 82.5 87.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 25.0 28.9 35.4 76.5 36.5 37.0 26.4 35.5 44.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------