***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.8 9.6 113.8 62.9 51.4 4.8 7.8 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.2 8.1 101.9 57.1 49.8 3.9 7.6 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.4 14.9 9.6 110.6 63.9 50.7 5.9 8.8 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.3 14.0 10.4 101.4 64.6 49.1 9.0 10.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.7 17.1 11.3 110.8 66.4 52.1 6.3 14.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.3 13.0 11.3 110.0 62.8 51.8 5.2 7.8 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.2 12.6 8.2 108.3 60.3 51.3 4.0 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.0 20.2 13.2 121.7 66.3 53.8 10.7 16.9 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.4 11.6 11.9 113.5 66.4 52.7 5.8 9.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.9 18.8 13.3 121.1 67.4 54.2 9.0 13.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.7 14.8 11.1 116.1 66.1 52.6 8.2 12.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.6 15.1 11.5 120.1 66.2 53.3 7.1 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 7.6 16.7 11.7 118.3 64.1 53.7 8.0 11.9 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.9 12.1 108.3 59.3 50.1 8.5 14.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.4 13.9 8.8 84.8 62.7 47.0 4.5 9.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.0 15.4 10.7 113.3 65.0 51.6 5.0 10.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.5 10.5 8.0 104.2 60.6 50.4 2.9 10.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.0 14.9 14.9 125.0 68.5 55.3 7.8 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.9 8.2 99.0 56.9 49.0 3.7 7.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 18.3 17.1 121.5 66.6 54.4 7.3 14.0 18.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.3 13.5 11.0 115.3 68.7 52.6 5.7 11.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.2 8.2 97.0 61.1 49.2 3.0 7.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.4 9.0 98.5 58.2 48.0 3.3 6.9 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.9 15.6 12.6 119.0 65.8 53.1 6.6 11.3 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.4 13.5 11.2 114.5 66.9 53.1 3.1 9.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.5 14.6 11.4 114.1 67.0 53.2 6.4 11.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.7 10.6 117.6 65.5 53.4 4.1 9.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.6 16.9 9.6 95.3 62.9 47.6 5.1 11.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 11.6 24.1 16.0 124.0 66.8 54.9 15.2 20.5 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.3 8.4 104.5 57.2 50.4 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------