***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.0 5.1 9.6 67.1 42.7 38.0 3.5 7.2 18.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 2.3 6.0 10.4 72.6 46.9 39.9 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 4.4 10.5 10.4 72.8 46.5 40.4 5.5 12.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.4 6.6 10.2 63.5 42.4 37.4 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.9 7.1 10.9 72.5 47.1 39.3 2.6 7.7 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.5 2.1 9.2 62.0 37.7 34.0 1.5 3.2 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.3 6.0 10.3 73.1 49.2 39.5 2.4 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.6 7.7 11.3 72.3 44.6 39.4 5.3 13.0 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.9 6.9 11.4 77.1 48.7 40.8 2.6 8.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.3 11.6 75.4 47.7 40.6 3.3 7.5 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.5 9.8 72.7 48.6 40.2 1.9 8.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.9 5.2 9.9 72.9 44.4 39.7 2.9 6.9 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.4 9.8 69.9 42.2 38.0 2.6 7.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 4.5 13.7 13.3 81.0 52.0 43.0 5.8 13.0 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.3 1.0 9.8 51.2 37.0 31.5 0.9 5.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.0 9.3 68.2 45.9 38.0 1.9 4.1 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.9 10.7 75.6 49.6 40.5 1.7 5.0 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 5.5 11.8 13.3 78.2 47.2 41.2 4.0 12.9 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.2 6.5 10.4 72.7 46.5 40.2 2.8 7.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 2.5 5.2 15.7 72.1 42.0 38.3 2.7 6.4 17.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.5 10.8 74.8 48.2 39.9 3.2 8.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.9 7.1 11.0 76.1 50.3 41.1 1.5 7.1 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 2.2 6.8 10.9 75.2 46.9 41.0 4.0 8.0 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.4 11.3 12.3 79.2 49.8 42.0 5.3 11.4 19.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.2 4.7 11.0 65.2 41.7 36.1 3.3 6.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.9 9.5 67.5 40.1 37.2 1.5 3.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.5 4.8 10.5 66.1 41.5 37.1 3.3 6.6 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.6 9.4 57.6 41.3 35.1 0.9 6.7 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.4 12.9 14.6 77.8 45.9 40.7 6.9 15.9 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 2.5 6.3 10.2 71.4 46.0 39.8 2.9 7.8 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------