***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.2 3.6 10.3 80.4 52.2 46.2 1.9 3.5 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.7 4.1 7.8 67.1 52.5 42.6 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.1 6.4 10.4 80.6 53.9 46.2 1.6 5.4 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.7 14.2 85.9 55.9 48.1 4.1 6.8 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.6 14.0 93.3 56.6 49.4 2.4 5.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.8 13.6 16.3 118.2 68.4 57.1 2.5 5.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.4 7.5 66.4 50.2 42.0 1.7 3.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.4 13.7 14.6 98.0 63.8 53.4 4.3 8.3 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.3 13.4 97.6 58.7 50.3 2.4 6.1 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.7 14.4 99.7 63.5 52.4 3.5 7.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.5 10.0 13.8 100.4 61.3 52.7 2.8 8.1 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.4 10.3 13.5 99.4 62.7 53.1 3.7 8.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.9 15.2 106.6 65.3 53.8 2.9 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.7 8.4 11.1 73.7 54.0 44.7 4.3 7.4 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.0 7.7 14.6 85.5 57.4 49.5 3.8 6.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.3 9.5 14.2 102.9 62.2 52.9 2.1 5.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.7 5.7 7.4 67.0 51.3 41.4 1.8 5.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.5 14.4 93.6 61.6 51.2 3.7 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.5 8.3 68.8 53.6 43.3 1.1 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.3 14.9 19.2 99.0 63.9 55.8 3.7 8.2 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.8 12.6 93.5 56.3 49.0 2.3 5.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.9 8.4 7.9 66.0 52.6 41.8 2.3 7.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.5 9.1 70.7 52.0 43.8 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.4 12.1 84.7 57.0 47.7 3.2 6.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.1 13.2 86.0 56.0 47.5 2.5 7.1 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.5 10.6 15.6 103.0 62.3 53.3 4.3 5.5 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.4 11.4 83.1 54.7 47.2 3.1 5.4 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.8 14.2 89.8 58.0 49.8 3.4 6.6 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.6 21.7 15.1 91.7 61.6 51.6 6.3 11.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.0 8.2 68.9 51.4 43.3 1.9 3.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------