***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 6.9 6.7 6.6 1.2 68.3 65.0 5.7 6.1 6.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 6.4 6.6 6.5 1.3 70.3 65.6 4.9 5.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 7.9 8.0 6.7 1.3 70.7 65.4 6.7 7.1 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 2.5 2.8 4.5 1.6 72.9 68.6 1.1 1.7 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.6 5.0 1.3 70.4 65.5 6.5 7.2 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 7.3 7.2 4.3 0.9 63.3 60.8 6.0 6.5 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 6.1 6.4 6.3 1.2 67.9 64.2 4.7 5.4 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 1.4 1.9 4.5 1.1 67.5 63.5 0.0 1.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 8.3 8.5 5.9 1.3 70.2 66.2 6.9 7.6 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 7.6 8.0 5.1 1.2 68.2 64.4 5.9 6.8 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 8.0 8.0 4.9 1.1 69.2 63.5 6.7 7.2 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 7.5 8.0 4.7 0.9 65.8 61.4 6.5 7.2 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.7 4.5 0.7 60.7 58.8 6.4 7.2 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 8.5 7.9 5.9 1.0 65.9 62.2 6.6 7.3 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.0 5.4 1.9 78.0 74.0 5.1 5.6 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 8.7 8.4 4.6 1.0 66.3 61.8 7.5 7.8 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 6.1 6.1 6.2 1.3 71.6 65.6 4.0 5.3 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 5.7 5.8 4.9 1.1 66.8 63.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 6.9 7.1 6.6 1.3 70.6 65.8 5.7 6.0 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 5.2 5.3 3.5 1.0 64.8 63.1 3.1 4.4 5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 8.0 8.0 6.4 1.4 70.8 66.1 6.3 7.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.6 6.3 1.3 70.8 65.9 5.0 5.5 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 6.8 7.2 6.6 1.3 70.1 65.2 5.5 5.8 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 8.8 8.7 6.0 1.2 69.2 63.9 6.8 7.6 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 7.0 6.9 5.4 1.3 71.2 65.8 5.3 6.0 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.1 4.2 0.7 60.4 58.1 6.5 6.7 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 7.7 7.8 6.0 1.2 68.3 64.1 6.5 7.0 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.6 4.9 1.7 74.0 69.9 5.4 6.5 7.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 4.9 4.5 4.3 1.0 64.8 62.2 3.3 4.2 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 6.5 6.8 6.6 1.3 69.1 65.4 5.4 5.8 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------