***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 6.2 7.1 6.2 2.0 65.2 65.0 2.4 5.9 7.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 5.6 6.8 6.0 2.1 65.3 66.2 2.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 8.6 8.6 6.2 2.1 66.4 65.5 3.2 6.2 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 3.6 2.9 4.3 2.3 69.8 69.3 -0.6 0.9 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 8.2 8.9 4.5 2.1 67.2 66.6 3.2 6.1 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 6.1 6.8 3.9 1.7 61.5 61.7 2.7 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 5.4 6.7 5.9 2.0 64.6 64.9 2.4 5.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 1.7 2.3 4.1 1.9 66.4 65.7 -1.3 0.0 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 9.1 9.0 5.3 2.1 67.3 66.0 3.5 6.7 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 7.6 8.1 4.7 2.0 66.9 65.7 3.3 5.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 6.6 8.6 4.3 1.8 64.0 64.7 3.8 6.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 6.3 7.3 4.2 1.6 61.9 63.1 3.6 5.5 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 6.0 7.5 3.8 1.4 58.4 59.7 2.8 5.5 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 9.0 8.6 5.6 2.0 66.3 65.0 3.3 6.2 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.7 4.9 2.6 73.9 72.4 3.8 5.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 7.2 8.3 4.0 1.7 62.8 63.1 3.3 6.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 6.2 5.9 5.8 2.1 64.9 65.8 3.3 4.8 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.2 4.7 2.1 67.0 65.5 2.0 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 8.0 7.4 6.2 2.2 66.2 66.3 3.2 5.7 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.1 3.4 2.1 69.2 66.9 1.4 3.6 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 8.6 8.9 5.8 2.1 66.7 65.7 3.2 6.4 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.7 5.9 2.2 67.3 66.8 3.8 4.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 7.4 7.4 6.3 2.1 66.4 65.9 3.2 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.0 5.6 2.0 66.5 65.2 3.9 6.4 9.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 47 53 100 7.3 7.7 4.9 2.2 67.5 66.9 1.8 6.1 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 5.6 5.7 3.7 1.3 54.3 59.2 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 6.9 9.0 5.6 2.0 66.0 65.1 2.8 6.4 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 6.8 7.1 4.5 2.4 71.0 69.7 3.6 5.7 6.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 4.7 4.6 4.2 2.0 66.1 65.2 0.8 2.5 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 5.9 7.4 6.1 2.1 65.4 65.8 2.4 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------