***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.1 7.5 1.2 59.5 59.8 4.9 7.3 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.0 7.3 1.2 59.9 59.9 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.4 7.5 1.2 59.9 60.2 4.3 7.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 2.8 4.2 5.3 1.3 64.6 61.4 -0.6 2.2 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.7 5.7 1.2 62.3 60.2 5.5 7.5 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.7 8.1 5.0 0.8 57.0 56.8 5.1 7.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.4 7.2 1.2 59.4 59.1 4.2 5.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.8 5.3 0.9 59.3 59.0 0.6 2.3 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.0 6.6 1.3 61.7 60.7 5.9 7.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.6 6.0 1.1 61.2 59.9 5.4 7.8 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.9 5.6 0.9 58.7 58.1 5.3 7.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.3 5.4 0.6 55.3 55.7 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.6 8.4 5.1 0.5 52.3 53.9 5.8 8.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.7 6.8 1.0 59.0 58.4 5.0 7.8 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 7.8 8.2 5.7 1.5 68.5 63.6 4.1 6.4 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.5 5.2 0.8 58.0 56.5 5.7 8.7 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.3 7.0 1.2 61.1 60.1 3.4 5.5 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.6 5.9 1.1 60.3 59.7 3.5 5.7 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.6 7.4 1.2 59.6 59.7 3.5 7.0 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 7.2 6.9 4.4 1.0 60.0 60.3 2.8 5.7 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.3 7.1 1.3 60.3 61.0 4.7 7.5 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.9 7.0 1.2 61.2 59.7 3.8 5.9 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.5 7.5 1.1 59.7 59.2 4.2 7.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.0 6.8 1.1 59.5 59.7 6.4 8.7 10.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.2 6.1 1.3 61.7 61.5 4.7 6.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.6 7.8 4.9 0.3 46.8 52.3 5.8 8.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.6 6.9 1.2 60.2 60.1 4.7 7.7 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.3 5.5 1.3 66.0 61.4 4.8 6.6 8.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.2 5.3 1.0 58.4 59.3 2.7 5.3 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.3 7.4 1.2 59.4 59.6 4.0 6.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------