***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 9.2 8.8 7.3 -0.6 49.9 47.7 5.5 8.8 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 8.6 8.2 7.1 -0.7 48.7 47.1 6.5 8.3 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 10.1 9.9 7.4 -0.6 51.2 48.9 7.9 9.8 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 3.9 4.4 5.1 0.2 59.2 55.3 1.9 3.6 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 9.8 9.7 6.1 -0.3 52.5 50.5 8.1 9.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 8.5 7.9 5.3 -0.5 48.9 47.5 6.8 8.0 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 8.2 7.7 6.9 -0.8 47.0 46.0 6.2 7.9 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 2.8 2.6 5.1 -0.5 53.0 49.3 0.6 2.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 10.5 10.3 6.9 -0.3 53.3 50.4 8.8 10.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 9.4 9.5 5.9 -0.6 53.1 49.3 7.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 10.5 10.1 6.1 -0.5 51.3 49.2 7.7 9.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 10.2 9.7 5.7 -0.5 50.6 48.7 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 10.3 9.1 6.3 -0.6 46.5 46.5 7.9 9.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 9.9 9.3 6.0 -1.4 45.2 45.4 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 7.3 10.0 7.2 1.0 65.2 61.8 5.4 6.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 10.8 10.3 6.0 -0.5 50.2 48.2 8.0 10.3 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 8.2 7.5 6.6 -0.7 46.9 47.1 5.6 7.9 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 7.9 7.7 5.2 -0.9 50.7 47.8 4.9 7.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 8.7 8.4 7.1 -0.7 49.8 47.6 6.8 8.4 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 6.0 5.6 3.9 -0.7 51.5 48.3 3.2 5.5 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 10.0 10.3 7.4 -0.4 51.9 50.3 7.8 9.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 8.3 7.9 6.8 -0.7 49.3 48.0 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 8.3 7.9 7.0 -0.8 48.7 47.8 6.8 8.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 10.5 10.2 6.4 -0.9 50.3 48.0 7.9 10.1 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 9.5 9.3 6.5 -0.4 50.5 49.5 6.7 9.3 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 8.8 8.0 5.6 -0.1 49.2 49.2 6.5 8.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 10.4 10.0 6.9 -0.7 47.9 46.7 6.8 10.1 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 8.0 9.4 6.1 0.5 61.1 57.3 6.3 7.5 9.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 6.3 5.9 4.4 -1.0 49.7 47.1 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 8.5 8.2 7.2 -0.7 49.8 47.3 6.5 8.2 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------