***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.7 57.7 57.7 -1.2 0.1 1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 -0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 59.5 58.9 -1.3 -0.4 0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 1.8 1.9 0.9 0.7 57.0 58.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 -3.7 -3.6 -1.4 1.1 56.6 60.3 -5.1 -3.8 -3.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 -0.1 0.1 -1.3 0.9 55.0 58.3 -1.5 -0.2 0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 -0.8 -0.6 -2.8 0.9 53.8 56.7 -1.7 -0.8 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 -0.2 0.3 1.0 0.8 59.5 59.2 -1.3 -0.4 0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -4.4 -4.3 -2.6 0.7 53.8 56.2 -6.0 -4.5 -4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 0.4 0.8 -0.6 1.0 60.8 60.4 -0.7 0.2 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 -0.2 0.1 -1.8 0.8 57.2 58.2 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 -0.2 -0.1 -1.8 0.8 52.7 55.7 -1.4 -0.3 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 -0.7 -0.7 -2.1 0.6 50.9 53.5 -2.4 -0.8 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 -0.2 -0.3 -2.3 0.6 50.6 53.4 -1.2 -0.3 0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 0.6 0.5 -1.2 0.4 51.6 53.9 -0.1 0.5 0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 1.3 63.2 64.4 -1.1 -0.8 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 0.6 0.6 -2.2 0.8 51.5 54.6 -0.5 0.5 1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 -0.4 0.1 0.9 0.9 61.3 61.2 -1.6 -0.6 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 -1.7 -1.3 -2.4 0.8 58.0 57.3 -2.6 -1.9 -1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.7 57.6 58.0 -0.9 0.0 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -4.1 -4.3 -3.8 0.7 54.8 56.4 -6.0 -4.4 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 60.8 59.9 -1.2 0.1 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 -0.2 0.1 0.9 0.9 61.4 60.3 -1.4 -0.3 0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 54.4 56.3 -0.9 -0.1 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 -0.2 -0.3 -1.0 0.7 56.2 57.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.8 57.1 58.5 -1.2 0.0 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 -0.5 -0.6 -2.3 0.4 48.2 50.7 -1.4 -0.6 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 57.6 57.9 -0.7 0.5 0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 -1.5 -1.0 -1.2 1.1 57.5 61.1 -2.4 -1.7 -0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 -2.8 -2.5 -3.1 0.6 55.5 55.7 -3.6 -2.9 -1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.7 58.7 58.1 -0.9 0.1 1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------