***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 0.3 -0.8 0.3 2.0 66.8 66.0 -2.7 -1.3 -0.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 -0.1 -0.7 0.1 2.0 69.3 68.1 -2.9 -1.6 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.0 67.8 66.5 -0.8 0.0 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 -3.9 -4.1 -2.9 2.0 60.3 65.2 -7.1 -5.4 -3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 -0.4 -0.9 -2.8 2.0 58.5 64.0 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -1.7 -1.4 -4.6 1.4 54.6 58.9 -3.8 -2.1 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 2.1 69.1 68.1 -3.0 -1.9 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -6.1 -6.2 -4.0 1.8 57.7 61.3 -7.9 -6.8 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 0.0 -0.1 -1.8 2.1 61.6 65.1 -2.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 -0.8 -1.6 -3.1 1.9 60.1 63.3 -3.0 -1.8 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 -1.0 -1.2 -3.4 1.7 56.9 60.5 -2.8 -1.3 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.1 -3.7 1.5 54.8 59.1 -4.3 -2.9 -0.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -2.1 -4.2 1.3 52.7 57.9 -3.0 -2.2 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 -0.1 0.2 -1.6 2.1 66.7 66.6 -2.3 -1.2 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 -0.4 -0.9 -1.9 2.1 62.8 67.2 -3.5 -1.6 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 -1.2 -1.1 -4.0 1.6 55.2 59.4 -2.2 -1.6 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 -0.2 -0.7 0.2 2.2 69.4 69.0 -2.6 -1.9 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 -1.9 -2.0 -3.4 2.0 63.2 64.1 -5.2 -3.1 -1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 2.0 69.8 67.9 -2.8 -1.2 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -4.9 -4.4 -5.0 1.7 63.0 61.7 -8.2 -5.4 -4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 0.0 0.0 -0.6 2.0 64.6 65.9 -3.1 -1.2 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 2.2 70.4 68.9 -2.9 -1.5 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 2.0 69.5 67.4 -2.8 -1.7 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 -1.0 -0.8 -1.8 2.1 67.0 65.9 -3.0 -1.7 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 0.0 0.0 -1.4 1.9 66.6 66.1 -3.0 -1.7 -0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 -1.6 -2.0 -4.2 1.1 50.4 56.9 -3.3 -2.1 -0.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 0.4 0.4 -0.5 2.0 67.4 66.4 -3.1 -1.7 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 -2.4 -1.9 -2.8 2.1 58.4 64.8 -4.2 -2.7 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 -2.9 -3.4 -4.0 1.8 62.0 62.6 -6.0 -4.7 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 0.0 -0.6 0.2 2.0 68.5 67.3 -2.6 -1.4 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------