***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 1.6 0.3 1.5 -1.0 37.9 40.7 -0.2 1.2 2.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 1.4 -0.1 0.8 -1.2 38.1 40.3 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 3.1 1.3 1.2 -1.0 37.8 40.2 1.1 2.7 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 -2.6 -2.9 -0.5 -0.1 47.0 48.0 -3.7 -2.8 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 42.9 44.9 -1.1 0.7 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 0.7 0.4 -1.0 0.8 47.9 50.5 -2.2 0.5 1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 1.2 0.2 0.9 -1.1 39.9 41.6 -0.2 1.0 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 -3.5 -5.0 -1.3 0.1 44.4 46.7 -5.7 -3.8 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 1.7 0.7 0.3 -0.2 42.5 45.5 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 0.8 0.2 -0.8 -0.1 43.4 45.5 -1.1 0.5 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 0.9 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 42.5 45.6 -1.7 0.7 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.1 44.7 47.0 -2.4 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 0.5 0.1 -0.2 0.5 47.8 49.2 -1.6 0.3 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 0.0 0.2 -1.6 -1.9 32.7 34.1 0.3 1.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 96 4 100 1.1 0.9 1.4 0.1 49.1 49.9 -1.1 1.0 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 95 5 100 1.1 0.7 -0.4 0.2 43.9 46.5 -0.4 1.0 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 1.2 -0.4 0.6 -1.1 41.0 41.4 -0.5 0.8 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 -0.6 -1.3 -1.6 -0.3 42.8 44.2 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 1.4 -0.1 0.7 -1.3 36.7 39.2 -0.4 0.8 2.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 -3.1 -3.7 -2.4 0.1 45.8 46.6 -5.0 -3.5 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 1.3 0.2 1.3 -0.5 39.8 42.9 -0.4 0.9 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 1.0 -0.3 0.7 -1.1 40.5 40.8 -0.5 0.5 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 1.4 0.0 0.1 -1.6 34.9 36.9 -0.1 0.9 2.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 39.2 41.0 -0.9 0.2 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 2.1 0.4 1.0 -0.6 41.2 42.5 -0.5 1.7 2.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.4 47.6 47.4 -1.8 0.2 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 1.4 0.4 1.1 -0.8 39.8 41.9 -0.3 0.9 2.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 94 6 100 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.0 47.4 48.6 -2.2 -0.2 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 -1.1 -2.6 -2.6 -0.3 41.9 43.8 -3.7 -1.6 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 1.4 0.6 1.1 -1.2 38.0 40.4 0.2 1.0 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------