***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 42.6 42.5 47.4 105.1 55.0 54.5 25.5 38.6 49.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 36.0 35.2 41.4 100.3 54.3 51.7 22.4 33.8 38.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 46.4 43.6 45.4 101.8 55.6 52.7 26.2 39.2 53.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 49.6 61.9 56.8 111.2 60.5 58.0 36.1 43.5 66.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 49.6 47.5 53.3 106.5 60.2 56.3 33.0 44.1 51.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 39.4 44.0 51.4 109.4 60.9 57.1 29.8 35.6 46.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 40.6 38.0 41.0 100.3 52.0 51.6 26.5 36.7 40.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 64.8 72.6 54.8 104.0 56.6 54.8 46.4 58.6 81.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 41.7 43.2 53.1 105.7 58.6 55.5 26.1 37.0 50.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 47.9 46.1 54.7 104.0 56.2 54.6 33.8 41.3 64.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 45.9 47.0 52.1 106.7 57.6 56.3 34.3 38.8 56.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 54.7 55.1 51.0 105.6 56.8 55.4 31.5 47.2 65.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 47.5 52.6 55.0 108.4 62.1 57.1 33.0 43.2 58.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 64.8 62.9 55.0 100.8 55.0 51.7 39.1 58.3 71.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 59.8 63.7 55.3 110.5 60.6 57.5 31.2 49.0 86.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 45.8 48.7 52.6 108.6 59.7 57.3 30.7 41.2 57.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 37.9 34.5 40.0 99.3 51.7 50.6 26.8 34.0 44.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 52.1 50.3 55.6 101.6 55.5 53.1 34.5 46.9 60.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 41.0 43.5 42.4 100.3 54.9 51.6 25.2 35.5 51.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 58.3 56.0 68.2 101.9 58.4 54.4 40.3 49.8 60.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 46.8 48.3 50.3 105.2 58.5 55.0 32.2 43.0 51.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 47.9 41.4 42.0 99.1 49.7 50.4 30.4 41.8 54.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 42.8 39.1 45.1 100.2 55.5 51.7 26.5 37.3 49.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 60.0 55.2 51.2 100.2 52.7 51.6 33.1 52.4 70.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 41.8 42.6 54.0 104.4 57.3 54.5 24.6 38.1 45.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 46.6 50.1 53.3 108.6 61.7 56.5 32.3 41.7 50.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 45.1 42.2 50.1 104.9 56.6 54.5 26.7 40.3 51.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 45.3 54.3 54.9 114.5 62.1 59.7 26.5 38.3 65.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 83.0 81.0 59.7 101.5 55.4 53.4 52.4 73.8 84.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 41.2 39.4 42.7 101.3 56.5 52.6 22.0 36.1 45.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------