***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 14.7 17.9 13.5 152.1 76.1 65.0 4.4 6.0 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 11.0 11.9 10.9 141.1 73.6 65.3 3.9 7.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 15.5 17.3 12.6 143.6 74.4 63.8 5.5 7.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 15.5 16.2 14.7 153.0 73.9 65.5 6.2 8.0 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 14.4 15.8 15.0 142.5 71.9 64.6 7.8 9.5 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.0 14.1 14.0 140.0 74.2 62.2 3.3 6.8 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.9 10.8 139.4 71.6 63.9 4.6 7.9 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 23.9 24.7 15.4 144.7 74.7 63.7 13.3 20.1 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 9.7 9.9 15.4 138.8 72.8 63.7 5.7 7.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 15.8 17.0 15.5 137.6 71.6 63.1 8.3 12.2 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.5 14.5 145.9 75.0 64.7 6.2 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 16.5 17.3 14.0 143.9 74.9 63.3 6.6 13.2 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 17.0 19.6 14.5 137.0 74.3 62.2 6.6 11.4 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.8 14.3 123.3 65.6 60.0 10.2 13.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 13.5 15.6 13.8 151.0 73.1 64.2 3.1 5.2 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 15.3 17.7 14.3 143.9 74.9 64.0 6.3 8.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 12.5 10.7 10.6 139.0 72.0 63.5 4.7 8.7 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 15.0 15.4 128.5 66.7 60.2 8.3 11.4 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 13.4 13.5 11.2 139.2 74.6 64.9 4.6 7.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 19.2 19.4 19.1 135.6 72.3 62.0 8.2 12.9 17.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.5 13.7 14.3 141.3 72.8 63.6 6.1 7.8 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.9 14.2 10.9 137.2 73.3 63.2 5.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 12.4 14.7 12.0 134.6 73.7 63.1 3.4 7.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.2 15.6 13.9 126.7 67.5 59.5 7.9 12.8 15.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 12.4 13.4 15.3 146.5 74.2 63.6 3.0 6.8 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.2 14.1 12.8 132.3 71.0 60.3 6.7 9.4 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.9 14.2 147.4 75.8 63.8 3.7 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.6 13.6 13.9 153.1 73.1 65.1 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.8 27.1 16.2 127.6 68.8 60.2 15.9 20.8 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 14.2 16.5 11.5 145.3 75.6 66.1 3.8 7.6 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------