***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.9 14.3 17.0 147.3 75.5 66.5 1.6 6.4 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.5 12.4 15.1 144.6 74.8 64.3 2.5 6.7 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 8.0 17.8 15.8 140.7 71.5 64.2 1.4 5.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 11.1 12.0 18.1 150.8 75.3 65.6 5.3 8.6 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.4 15.4 18.3 151.8 74.7 67.3 4.6 7.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 7.8 10.8 17.1 154.1 74.9 67.4 1.8 2.9 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 10.3 12.2 15.3 144.5 74.8 65.0 2.1 6.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.0 18.6 18.0 143.6 74.3 65.1 5.7 10.0 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 9.6 11.7 18.6 148.5 74.5 67.5 2.6 4.7 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 13.1 17.5 18.7 147.9 74.9 66.7 2.9 5.1 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 11.6 15.7 17.3 150.5 76.5 66.8 2.1 4.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 10.3 11.9 16.6 146.4 74.8 65.8 4.4 5.4 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 8.4 10.9 18.8 159.9 78.7 67.6 3.5 4.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.5 24.6 18.6 143.6 73.7 65.8 4.5 9.6 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 5.4 10.9 16.1 135.3 68.4 62.5 0.8 3.3 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 10.4 13.1 17.9 158.2 78.0 67.8 2.3 5.8 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 8.0 12.8 14.6 139.7 72.6 63.5 3.0 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 13.9 16.7 19.2 146.8 72.9 67.0 2.8 5.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.8 14.4 15.0 143.1 73.4 63.9 2.4 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 11.8 15.0 23.3 139.9 74.5 64.8 3.9 6.6 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 11.7 14.2 17.7 148.7 73.6 66.4 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.0 16.3 14.7 136.8 72.6 62.1 2.8 6.8 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 9.5 11.6 15.5 141.1 69.9 63.7 1.4 8.2 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 15.1 19.9 17.4 143.9 72.4 65.8 2.0 7.4 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 7.5 11.0 19.6 150.8 75.0 67.2 2.4 6.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.6 13.0 17.6 149.2 76.6 64.7 4.4 5.3 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.6 15.3 18.5 150.9 76.4 67.7 3.9 5.7 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 7.8 8.6 16.8 151.1 74.8 65.6 0.9 5.4 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 20.9 23.9 20.3 145.0 74.6 66.8 4.7 14.6 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.4 12.1 15.4 143.8 74.2 64.2 2.2 5.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------