***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 8.9 12.7 12.2 101.5 60.6 53.9 3.5 6.2 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.5 10.1 91.1 59.7 51.3 1.6 4.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.5 18.0 11.9 102.1 59.9 54.3 3.1 5.1 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.2 15.4 109.0 59.3 54.8 4.7 9.6 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.3 15.8 14.6 111.0 59.9 56.9 2.1 9.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 8.0 9.0 14.6 116.6 61.1 57.7 2.5 7.2 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.9 10.0 91.6 61.6 51.2 2.6 5.6 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.1 16.1 14.8 109.8 60.1 56.5 5.4 11.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.9 11.7 13.4 106.9 61.3 56.3 1.8 4.5 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 7.6 11.8 14.1 106.6 60.7 55.7 2.4 4.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.7 18.0 14.5 110.7 62.0 57.2 2.6 5.6 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.9 11.9 14.3 111.2 59.1 56.7 2.7 10.0 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.4 13.3 15.7 114.8 60.5 58.0 4.1 9.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.1 14.4 14.8 100.1 60.0 52.4 3.1 11.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 18.0 21.1 16.6 121.0 67.8 57.2 4.4 11.1 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.6 14.2 14.8 113.7 63.3 58.1 2.3 8.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.0 10.0 91.0 61.4 50.2 2.3 4.3 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.2 17.3 14.1 103.1 59.5 54.0 2.4 8.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.7 7.7 10.6 93.9 59.1 52.0 2.0 6.5 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.6 14.6 17.6 102.6 58.3 54.6 1.9 6.7 20.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.5 18.6 12.7 102.7 60.7 54.0 3.8 6.9 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.3 10.7 95.4 60.0 51.8 2.2 7.3 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.8 11.9 96.1 58.4 52.0 1.2 5.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.1 13.4 101.2 59.8 53.4 4.3 10.9 15.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.1 13.9 99.5 57.7 52.9 2.2 10.2 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 9.9 11.2 16.6 129.3 66.8 59.9 3.6 8.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.2 13.9 12.7 98.4 59.8 53.0 2.8 4.5 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.8 15.7 118.7 64.9 57.8 1.9 10.1 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.4 16.4 15.4 102.4 58.2 53.6 3.5 8.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.9 10.6 94.6 60.5 53.0 2.4 4.7 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------