***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 1.5 2.9 4.7 36.9 37.6 32.5 2.3 4.9 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 2.1 4.5 5.3 43.9 43.1 34.3 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.6 5.3 5.0 39.0 40.5 32.9 2.6 6.3 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.4 8.5 8.5 55.5 46.4 42.8 4.0 8.7 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.1 2.8 5.5 38.0 36.3 33.0 2.3 4.6 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.7 2.4 5.6 42.2 39.2 33.4 1.4 8.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 2.1 4.5 4.9 42.1 43.1 33.0 2.4 6.3 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.7 6.3 6.6 41.1 38.6 32.6 5.7 12.4 25.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.3 1.7 5.7 40.7 37.7 33.4 0.9 5.6 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.8 5.0 6.4 41.2 38.6 33.0 2.9 8.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.7 2.4 5.8 40.4 39.6 33.5 1.6 8.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.4 2.9 6.1 42.5 38.8 33.7 2.2 5.6 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.8 6.1 41.2 35.5 31.9 2.4 4.4 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.3 8.3 7.3 48.0 40.8 35.9 5.3 12.7 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 8.1 5.5 8.7 57.3 53.0 47.6 2.1 4.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.3 1.8 5.6 39.4 36.7 32.1 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.7 5.3 4.8 42.6 41.0 32.4 2.2 7.5 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.4 6.8 7.0 43.3 38.2 33.5 5.1 10.9 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.0 5.1 5.5 44.5 42.7 34.6 3.4 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.1 7.6 8.2 43.8 39.1 33.8 3.8 11.9 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.9 3.8 5.6 41.5 39.7 34.3 2.6 7.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 4.7 7.2 5.6 45.5 38.4 33.6 6.1 10.3 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.7 7.1 5.8 45.2 41.7 34.8 4.5 8.5 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.5 4.6 6.4 43.5 39.0 34.0 3.5 8.9 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.7 2.7 5.1 35.8 38.7 31.8 2.1 6.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.8 3.6 6.3 42.6 40.2 32.9 2.7 5.7 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 2.3 4.0 4.7 36.3 39.7 32.0 2.0 6.4 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 7.6 4.6 8.5 58.2 50.1 45.3 1.6 4.6 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.0 7.7 45.6 40.1 33.9 7.0 16.2 28.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 2.3 3.6 5.2 42.1 42.0 33.4 2.3 6.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------