***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.3 2.7 3.8 -1.1 34.6 44.1 2.6 3.6 5.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.1 3.6 -1.3 34.0 43.6 2.0 2.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.7 4.2 -1.0 36.1 45.2 3.3 4.5 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -2.5 -0.5 1.5 -0.8 35.2 45.3 -0.8 0.0 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.7 3.5 2.5 -0.8 39.1 46.3 3.0 4.4 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.0 3.9 2.5 -0.4 43.7 48.8 2.2 4.6 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.2 1.5 3.5 -1.3 31.9 43.1 1.5 2.7 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -1.8 -0.7 2.5 -0.6 39.8 47.9 -1.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.0 3.4 -0.8 39.3 47.0 3.8 4.8 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.5 3.0 -0.7 40.0 47.6 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.1 3.6 2.6 -0.8 41.0 46.8 3.1 4.8 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.9 2.5 -0.7 40.4 47.0 3.2 4.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.9 3.8 2.2 -0.7 41.4 46.8 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.1 3.4 3.7 -1.0 40.9 46.2 3.0 5.3 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.0 2.9 2.3 -0.9 33.5 45.5 2.8 3.4 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.7 4.5 2.2 -0.8 40.6 46.2 3.5 5.6 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.3 1.5 3.5 -1.3 35.2 43.6 1.4 2.7 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 1.3 2.2 3.0 -0.6 42.6 47.7 1.4 3.0 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.9 2.7 3.9 -1.2 35.4 44.5 2.4 3.1 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 0.2 1.3 1.7 -0.4 44.1 49.0 0.5 2.8 4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.1 3.8 3.9 -0.8 38.9 46.1 3.6 4.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.6 2.7 3.7 -1.1 37.4 44.6 1.9 3.1 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.1 3.2 4.2 -1.1 36.8 45.4 2.9 3.4 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.2 3.7 -0.8 40.7 46.7 3.7 5.2 6.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.5 2.7 2.6 -0.9 37.5 45.0 2.6 3.9 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.5 3.6 2.2 -0.4 40.3 48.2 3.1 4.9 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.6 3.1 3.3 -1.0 35.6 44.3 2.8 5.5 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.1 1.9 -0.8 34.6 45.7 3.0 4.6 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -0.6 1.5 2.6 -0.5 42.8 48.2 0.8 2.5 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.1 3.6 -1.2 32.8 43.7 2.1 3.0 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------