***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.1 4.0 5.7 -0.4 38.8 44.4 3.3 5.6 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.7 3.7 5.7 -0.3 40.2 44.7 2.4 5.2 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.9 5.0 6.2 -0.3 41.1 45.5 4.0 6.2 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.4 1.1 3.2 -0.3 43.2 46.3 -0.3 1.9 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.6 5.3 4.3 -0.4 43.1 45.6 4.4 5.8 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.0 4.5 3.9 -0.5 38.6 45.6 3.7 6.6 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.5 3.2 5.5 -0.5 38.1 43.6 2.8 5.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.5 0.3 4.0 -0.5 41.1 45.0 -1.1 0.7 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.3 5.3 5.2 -0.4 42.1 45.4 5.1 6.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.8 4.9 4.6 -0.5 41.9 45.2 4.0 6.2 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.4 4.4 -0.4 42.5 45.9 4.3 5.9 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.1 5.1 4.2 -0.3 41.3 45.6 4.6 6.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.3 4.8 3.8 -0.5 39.0 45.1 4.0 5.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.3 4.4 5.6 -0.5 40.1 45.0 3.6 6.6 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.3 4.0 -0.3 42.4 46.5 3.8 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.3 4.1 -0.4 41.0 45.8 4.6 6.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.3 5.6 -0.3 39.4 44.8 2.3 4.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.7 4.4 -0.7 40.7 44.4 3.1 4.2 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.4 4.2 6.0 -0.3 40.9 45.6 3.0 5.9 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.3 3.9 2.8 -0.7 38.4 43.4 2.5 4.4 5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.6 5.3 5.7 -0.3 42.1 45.7 4.0 6.0 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.9 3.8 5.8 -0.2 41.7 46.2 2.7 5.5 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.4 3.7 6.4 -0.2 41.5 46.2 3.0 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.5 5.9 5.4 -0.5 41.1 45.1 3.9 6.7 9.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.0 4.1 4.3 -0.5 41.5 45.1 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.2 4.5 3.7 -0.4 39.6 45.2 4.1 5.8 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.7 4.1 5.2 -0.5 38.9 44.0 3.5 6.0 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.0 3.7 -0.3 42.6 46.3 4.4 6.2 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.9 2.5 3.9 -0.7 40.2 44.2 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.7 3.9 5.7 -0.4 39.6 44.4 2.6 5.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------