***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.3 6.2 -0.7 45.7 43.6 5.1 7.5 9.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.3 6.2 6.1 -0.8 43.1 43.3 5.4 6.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.1 6.4 -0.9 44.2 43.4 5.8 9.0 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.6 0.6 3.0 -1.1 40.0 41.2 0.2 1.9 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 8.7 7.2 4.7 -0.9 42.5 42.2 6.0 8.2 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.6 4.3 -0.4 46.1 45.4 5.7 7.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.3 5.8 6.1 -0.7 43.0 43.6 5.4 6.8 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.6 1.3 4.2 -0.8 41.9 42.8 0.3 2.0 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.6 8.2 5.5 -0.9 42.9 42.4 5.9 9.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.9 7.7 4.8 -0.9 42.2 42.5 6.3 8.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.1 6.3 5.0 -1.0 41.1 41.8 5.9 8.7 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.4 8.5 4.5 -0.8 41.4 42.2 6.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.0 7.1 5.3 -0.6 42.8 43.5 6.2 8.2 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 8.8 7.2 5.8 -1.1 41.5 43.0 6.4 8.2 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.5 5.6 4.3 -1.0 35.5 39.6 5.5 7.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.0 8.2 4.8 -0.8 42.1 42.8 6.7 9.5 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.7 5.4 5.7 -0.9 42.8 42.7 4.8 6.2 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.2 4.7 -0.9 42.6 43.7 4.2 5.7 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.8 6.9 6.3 -0.8 43.4 43.4 4.9 7.5 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.7 3.8 -0.3 43.0 46.7 3.1 4.1 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.1 7.4 6.1 -0.9 42.8 43.0 6.2 8.8 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.0 5.9 5.8 -0.9 43.1 42.9 5.1 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.0 6.4 -0.8 43.3 44.0 6.1 7.8 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 9.9 8.2 5.7 -1.0 42.8 42.8 6.5 9.6 10.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.4 6.2 5.1 -0.8 42.1 43.1 5.4 6.9 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.5 7.3 4.6 -0.4 42.4 44.6 6.6 7.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.8 8.1 5.9 -0.7 45.4 44.0 5.5 8.2 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.1 3.7 -1.1 37.9 40.6 5.2 7.0 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 4.8 4.5 -0.5 43.9 45.6 3.0 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.9 6.8 6.2 -0.7 42.6 43.6 5.2 7.5 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------