***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.0 8.1 -0.2 43.7 43.5 6.1 8.1 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.0 6.8 8.5 0.2 43.7 46.3 6.0 8.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.5 8.9 8.8 0.2 46.0 46.8 7.6 9.5 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 3.8 2.6 4.4 -0.7 39.9 41.2 1.4 3.3 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.5 9.4 6.9 -0.1 44.4 45.5 7.0 9.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 9.2 8.7 6.1 0.2 48.7 48.2 6.4 8.7 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 6.2 8.1 -0.1 41.4 44.2 6.0 8.0 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 3.5 3.4 7.3 1.2 57.7 56.4 0.1 3.1 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.1 7.8 0.1 45.6 45.8 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.8 7.8 0.9 54.1 53.6 6.9 9.1 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.6 9.8 7.6 0.2 47.0 47.4 6.8 9.9 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.8 9.6 6.9 0.4 47.9 48.4 7.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.7 9.7 8.0 0.4 45.7 48.1 7.9 10.0 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 10.8 10.8 9.2 1.1 53.3 54.7 7.7 10.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.4 5.5 6.1 -0.6 37.5 37.9 4.6 7.6 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.1 7.2 0.1 45.5 46.7 8.2 10.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 8.8 6.8 8.2 0.3 45.1 47.6 5.4 8.1 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 7.8 8.7 8.3 1.7 64.1 60.5 5.6 7.1 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 9.3 8.1 8.8 0.4 47.0 49.0 6.5 8.6 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 8.6 9.3 8.4 3.1 75.4 73.6 3.8 6.0 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.6 9.5 8.5 0.0 45.9 45.6 7.4 10.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 9.3 9.0 8.7 0.7 51.8 52.2 5.6 8.9 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 9.1 8.6 9.0 0.6 49.7 52.0 6.5 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 11.3 11.6 8.9 0.8 55.1 53.0 8.0 10.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.5 8.3 7.3 -0.2 43.4 44.8 6.8 8.9 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 9.5 9.5 7.1 0.8 54.6 53.0 6.8 9.2 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.6 8.0 7.9 -0.2 44.1 44.7 7.4 9.7 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 8.6 7.5 5.4 -0.6 39.2 40.4 6.6 7.9 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 8.0 9.1 8.8 2.8 70.5 68.8 4.1 6.3 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.9 7.1 8.5 0.1 43.7 45.9 6.3 8.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------