***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -2.6 -1.1 -0.8 34.5 45.7 -2.7 -1.2 0.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 -1.0 -2.8 -1.4 -0.8 35.0 46.2 -3.0 -1.8 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 -1.5 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 33.7 45.8 -1.0 -0.5 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -7.1 -6.5 -3.8 -0.9 36.3 44.8 -6.7 -5.1 -4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -3.2 -2.7 -3.2 -0.8 36.8 46.2 -3.2 -1.5 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -3.3 -3.0 -5.1 -0.8 36.1 45.9 -3.1 -2.0 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -3.1 -1.3 -0.8 35.4 46.3 -3.2 -1.9 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -7.7 -7.5 -4.4 -0.7 36.4 47.3 -7.7 -6.6 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 -2.6 -2.8 -2.7 -0.8 34.4 46.9 -2.8 -1.3 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 -2.8 -2.9 -3.9 -0.8 35.3 47.3 -2.9 -1.8 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -2.8 -2.4 -3.7 -0.8 37.6 46.5 -2.7 -1.7 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -3.5 -3.0 -4.2 -0.7 36.8 46.3 -3.1 -2.5 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 -2.9 -2.7 -4.6 -0.9 37.0 45.2 -2.9 -1.3 -0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 -2.5 -1.6 -3.0 -0.9 35.3 46.8 -1.7 -1.1 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -2.7 -2.6 -0.9 34.0 44.6 -2.7 -2.5 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 -2.3 -1.9 -4.4 -0.9 36.4 45.2 -2.1 -1.3 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -2.8 -1.2 -0.8 36.3 46.4 -3.0 -2.0 0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 -5.0 -3.9 -4.6 -0.8 36.3 47.2 -4.1 -2.9 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -2.2 -1.3 -0.7 35.0 46.2 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -6.8 -6.5 -5.5 -0.5 42.2 48.9 -7.3 -4.9 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -3.0 -3.3 -1.6 -0.8 34.1 46.4 -3.3 -1.4 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -2.5 -1.3 -0.7 37.0 47.0 -2.7 -1.5 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -2.9 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 34.8 46.7 -2.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -2.7 -3.2 -0.9 33.4 46.6 -2.7 -1.7 -0.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 -2.9 -2.2 -2.3 -0.8 34.6 45.1 -2.5 -1.4 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -2.9 -2.5 -4.6 -0.7 36.2 46.3 -2.8 -1.4 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 -3.1 -3.0 -1.5 -0.8 34.6 45.7 -3.0 -1.6 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -4.1 -3.9 -3.6 -0.9 33.7 44.7 -4.0 -2.6 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -6.1 -5.5 -4.9 -0.7 37.8 48.0 -5.5 -4.3 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 -0.9 -2.5 -1.3 -0.8 35.1 46.1 -2.7 -1.6 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------