***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 2.1 2.0 3.6 1.0 53.2 55.4 -0.4 1.8 2.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 1.5 2.0 3.5 1.3 59.3 58.2 -0.3 1.1 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 2.7 3.4 3.9 1.3 56.5 58.2 1.3 2.5 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 -2.6 -0.1 1.3 1.5 59.3 58.6 -5.2 -2.8 -0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 94 6 100 1.0 1.6 2.5 1.5 62.0 60.2 -1.4 0.8 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 98 2 100 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 49.6 51.2 -1.5 -0.3 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 1.5 1.2 3.1 0.9 53.1 53.2 -0.5 1.2 2.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 -2.8 -2.4 0.2 1.4 54.9 55.6 -6.7 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 1.8 2.4 2.6 1.7 62.1 62.2 0.1 1.5 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 94 6 100 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.5 58.3 58.1 -1.6 0.4 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 95 5 100 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.2 55.3 55.8 -1.7 0.6 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 -0.2 -0.6 0.4 0.7 49.0 50.2 -2.2 -0.4 1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 0.3 -1.0 -0.4 -0.1 42.7 43.6 -1.8 0.1 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 1.3 3.4 2.6 2.0 65.4 64.1 0.2 1.0 3.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 1.2 2.0 3.1 1.7 60.9 61.3 0.0 1.0 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.9 52.8 53.1 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 1.4 1.6 3.1 1.2 57.9 56.1 -0.3 1.1 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 -0.7 0.2 0.8 1.7 57.5 57.6 -2.5 -0.8 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 1.5 2.0 3.6 1.5 60.1 60.3 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 -2.9 -2.3 0.2 2.2 61.5 61.3 -5.8 -3.1 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 1.5 1.4 3.3 1.1 57.1 57.1 -0.8 1.2 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 1.0 1.2 3.3 1.3 58.8 58.5 -0.2 0.8 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 1.1 1.6 3.7 1.7 61.0 62.5 -0.4 0.9 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.5 59.2 58.9 -1.3 0.1 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 1.6 1.8 3.1 1.0 57.1 56.6 -0.8 1.3 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.3 44.6 47.5 -1.3 0.1 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 1.8 1.1 2.9 0.5 49.7 51.1 -0.4 1.1 2.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 94 6 100 0.1 1.0 1.8 1.6 58.2 59.1 -1.9 0.0 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 -0.8 0.6 0.6 2.3 63.3 62.8 -4.0 -1.1 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 1.9 2.3 3.7 1.2 57.2 57.8 -0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------