***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 24.7 38.6 46.4 93.8 52.9 48.1 25.0 35.2 49.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 38.8 36.1 41.5 94.5 53.8 49.0 25.2 34.5 38.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 27.3 38.0 42.8 89.4 49.5 45.7 25.7 38.3 53.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 35.0 40.7 44.8 80.9 40.0 39.8 37.1 47.1 71.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 29.8 39.2 46.2 86.9 43.9 43.8 32.3 44.1 51.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 24.8 31.9 42.1 83.3 39.9 40.5 29.3 37.8 44.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 40.7 39.0 41.3 94.4 54.4 49.4 26.7 36.2 41.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 48.0 48.7 48.4 85.7 40.9 42.1 45.9 63.3 84.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 25.4 36.5 48.1 90.9 47.9 46.2 26.1 38.0 53.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 29.7 40.5 50.1 90.4 45.0 45.2 33.7 42.3 64.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 26.9 35.5 43.9 84.3 40.1 41.7 34.5 39.1 61.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 33.1 37.5 42.8 81.9 39.1 40.0 30.4 49.0 70.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 32.6 37.0 42.8 78.2 38.1 36.7 32.3 42.3 59.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 68.0 63.0 55.5 96.5 54.7 48.6 43.4 60.3 71.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 31.7 31.2 36.3 66.7 33.7 33.5 30.9 59.6 92.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 26.8 31.6 42.7 82.0 39.2 39.8 30.9 40.3 53.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 41.7 39.3 40.7 93.5 53.5 48.4 26.0 38.8 45.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 34.2 44.1 53.6 93.5 47.5 46.7 34.6 45.1 61.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 43.2 40.5 42.2 94.0 53.2 48.5 26.2 35.4 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 37.6 46.5 63.8 89.2 44.9 43.5 36.4 48.6 61.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 27.3 39.9 46.5 90.9 49.8 46.3 32.3 40.2 50.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 49.9 46.8 42.4 93.0 53.1 47.1 28.6 42.2 54.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 45.4 40.3 44.0 93.2 53.2 47.8 27.4 38.2 49.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 36.7 55.2 50.0 93.4 49.9 47.0 31.8 55.3 70.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 42.7 38.6 51.2 91.5 50.0 46.6 24.4 38.6 46.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 31.9 36.6 42.3 79.0 38.3 38.2 33.9 44.5 51.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 44.9 41.9 50.5 96.7 54.7 49.8 26.4 40.0 53.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.0 28.8 38.9 74.2 35.6 36.4 28.0 40.1 65.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 49.8 65.3 57.8 93.7 48.0 46.4 45.9 67.2 84.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 40.9 38.1 42.1 93.7 53.2 48.6 22.9 34.8 45.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------