***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.5 12.7 97.9 59.2 48.2 3.5 5.3 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.3 11.6 105.1 61.4 48.9 3.5 7.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.6 12.1 95.5 57.5 48.1 6.3 7.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.2 9.6 12.2 87.7 52.7 45.8 7.2 9.5 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.4 9.3 12.6 88.6 49.9 45.3 8.6 9.3 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.7 6.9 10.6 81.1 49.4 44.8 3.1 7.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.9 11.9 109.2 61.0 49.8 3.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 13.4 20.6 13.2 90.1 54.2 45.7 14.8 18.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 5.0 8.4 13.4 90.6 52.0 45.8 5.8 8.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.4 13.6 13.7 90.7 53.2 45.7 6.4 12.6 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.1 11.7 11.8 87.0 49.8 44.6 8.3 11.8 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.1 13.7 11.5 86.9 53.2 45.4 7.1 13.2 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.2 9.9 11.8 84.7 52.3 44.7 6.3 9.1 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 7.2 16.5 15.3 98.9 60.8 49.0 9.8 13.6 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.8 5.7 11.7 84.8 54.8 46.3 1.0 4.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.2 8.8 11.5 86.1 50.3 44.6 5.1 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.7 11.9 110.7 61.3 49.2 4.3 9.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.1 14.2 14.8 94.4 57.8 46.9 6.3 12.5 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.5 11.6 100.7 60.4 48.8 4.8 7.7 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 13.4 18.5 96.7 56.7 47.1 8.6 12.6 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.3 8.9 12.9 92.4 57.3 46.7 5.1 7.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.0 11.8 103.2 60.1 48.1 5.7 6.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.7 9.5 12.1 97.8 59.9 49.5 5.3 7.5 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 7.0 14.3 13.9 96.3 60.3 48.3 5.5 12.7 15.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.5 13.8 93.5 58.4 47.5 2.7 5.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.4 11.3 85.7 53.7 46.6 6.7 9.3 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.3 13.5 99.3 59.7 48.8 3.1 5.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.1 11.1 84.8 51.5 45.2 2.9 6.2 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.1 21.9 16.1 96.2 58.7 47.1 14.3 19.8 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.6 11.7 102.2 61.0 48.8 3.2 8.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------