***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.9 14.2 110.3 64.3 54.9 2.0 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.4 13.4 117.9 66.6 54.7 2.6 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.1 13.2 13.4 109.9 66.5 54.4 2.1 5.2 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.7 9.8 13.3 96.1 59.1 53.3 3.9 8.6 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.7 11.2 14.2 105.1 60.3 55.7 4.4 6.9 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 5.3 9.0 13.9 106.5 60.3 55.0 1.2 3.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.2 9.7 13.1 115.1 64.8 54.6 2.8 6.0 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.5 10.6 15.4 105.8 59.6 55.3 5.2 9.9 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.9 15.2 108.7 61.7 56.0 1.7 5.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.4 15.8 109.5 61.9 56.6 3.3 6.1 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.4 13.9 106.5 60.7 56.4 2.0 5.8 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.9 13.8 103.9 59.6 54.7 2.6 6.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.0 13.6 97.9 56.5 52.0 4.1 6.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.5 16.3 17.5 120.5 66.6 57.0 5.1 8.7 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.0 11.8 85.4 56.5 49.8 1.3 3.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.3 13.6 104.5 59.9 55.5 2.3 4.0 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.6 13.1 116.2 66.5 56.0 2.7 6.8 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.8 16.7 112.3 63.5 57.2 2.6 6.6 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.9 9.3 13.7 118.7 67.5 54.8 3.4 5.7 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.8 9.6 20.0 106.3 59.9 55.5 3.9 6.3 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.8 14.3 108.1 63.2 55.1 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.2 15.9 13.9 116.7 67.0 55.2 2.4 8.8 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.9 14.1 117.4 65.9 54.8 2.5 7.8 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.4 15.3 112.8 66.0 56.1 5.1 8.3 12.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.2 15.4 105.5 61.4 53.8 2.6 5.6 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.9 14.3 103.9 57.5 54.8 3.6 6.6 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.8 11.0 15.5 112.6 64.1 55.3 3.7 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.9 7.2 12.3 93.3 58.6 52.7 0.4 4.3 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 18.2 18.0 113.1 64.7 57.6 4.3 10.0 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.9 13.3 114.4 65.4 54.0 1.9 5.8 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------