***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.2 10.4 12.4 100.2 58.9 51.0 3.5 6.2 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.0 5.8 10.6 93.0 57.0 49.6 1.8 3.9 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.4 11.6 11.3 96.3 55.7 49.2 3.6 6.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.4 9.9 12.5 89.7 53.5 47.7 5.4 9.6 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.1 9.2 10.9 82.8 48.3 43.5 2.0 9.8 18.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.5 6.4 9.7 75.8 47.7 43.5 3.3 6.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.0 9.9 88.0 53.9 48.1 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.6 7.9 12.1 88.0 49.7 46.2 6.5 8.0 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.4 5.9 12.9 101.5 56.1 51.0 1.6 4.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.3 12.5 95.4 52.9 48.4 3.7 7.7 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.3 7.7 10.7 81.6 46.6 43.0 3.2 9.0 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.5 8.2 11.0 83.2 47.1 44.9 6.7 9.0 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.9 8.3 59.6 37.8 34.5 4.6 9.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.7 12.8 15.5 109.2 60.4 52.0 4.0 10.2 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.5 12.5 9.2 66.8 49.9 39.5 3.9 12.5 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.7 5.6 9.8 74.7 45.7 41.2 3.8 7.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.4 8.1 9.6 84.1 54.5 46.1 1.9 6.0 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.9 13.8 101.0 55.1 50.9 6.3 10.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.8 11.3 98.8 59.2 51.0 1.5 6.9 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.1 7.6 15.7 88.7 50.3 47.2 3.8 7.5 18.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.7 12.7 12.7 103.0 58.2 51.2 2.7 7.0 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.7 10.8 93.7 58.7 48.5 1.3 7.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.6 9.7 12.3 103.5 60.0 51.1 1.5 5.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.7 13.7 104.7 58.1 51.5 4.8 9.0 11.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.2 12.4 88.3 52.4 45.8 3.0 9.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.2 6.6 9.7 69.6 42.8 40.9 3.7 8.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 9.5 13.0 98.6 57.9 50.2 3.3 5.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.1 10.4 10.2 76.7 51.0 43.1 4.8 10.4 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.3 13.5 15.0 98.4 53.5 50.4 6.4 13.3 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.2 11.0 95.1 56.7 49.9 2.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------