***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 5.9 5.4 7.1 63.2 51.9 48.8 2.3 5.3 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.4 5.5 5.9 58.3 51.3 45.6 3.0 5.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 7.2 5.8 5.9 52.5 48.3 44.2 2.1 5.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.3 10.2 6.8 49.9 47.8 40.9 3.7 11.0 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 8.5 10.4 8.5 69.4 55.0 49.4 2.1 6.3 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 10.7 8.8 7.9 67.7 51.3 46.4 3.5 8.3 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.9 7.2 6.4 62.8 54.2 47.7 1.0 6.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 23.8 14.6 7.7 56.9 46.7 42.5 5.7 19.3 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 8.6 6.1 6.7 58.2 49.9 45.5 1.8 6.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.5 4.9 8.1 63.0 49.6 46.0 2.1 4.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 12.6 7.9 7.5 60.6 49.1 45.3 2.1 8.0 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.1 3.9 6.5 51.8 46.2 41.8 1.9 4.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 9.3 5.8 9.2 70.3 53.1 47.3 2.6 5.4 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.1 8.6 7.2 53.9 46.6 42.6 5.0 9.0 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 1.8 3.6 3.7 27.9 39.5 29.7 2.0 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 11.5 7.4 7.8 62.2 50.6 45.4 0.9 7.0 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.7 6.6 6.1 60.6 51.6 45.9 2.0 6.5 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.4 7.4 8.4 63.0 49.0 45.2 2.6 8.0 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.4 6.9 5.6 54.0 49.6 43.4 2.2 6.9 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 8.3 9.6 60.6 47.0 42.7 3.0 8.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 8.3 7.1 6.6 56.5 48.1 45.7 2.8 7.6 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.4 7.9 5.9 55.1 50.0 42.6 3.5 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.6 6.5 5.5 50.1 47.2 41.5 2.0 7.5 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.9 7.0 7.0 56.5 48.6 43.8 2.5 7.2 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 6.5 7.0 9.7 76.5 56.0 53.7 2.1 5.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.3 6.9 7.1 55.3 47.6 42.5 4.1 7.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 6.7 6.5 8.5 73.1 55.2 52.2 1.8 5.6 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.0 5.4 41.5 43.4 35.2 1.8 6.6 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.5 12.2 8.8 63.0 48.5 44.2 6.2 15.7 28.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 7.4 6.3 6.1 59.4 52.0 46.7 1.8 6.1 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------