***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 7.8 7.6 7.7 1.4 65.9 63.5 5.9 6.9 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.3 7.8 1.5 65.2 64.4 5.1 6.0 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 8.7 8.6 8.2 1.5 66.2 64.1 6.7 7.8 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 3.1 3.1 5.3 1.6 69.6 66.5 1.0 2.5 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.4 6.2 1.2 64.4 61.7 6.9 7.5 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 8.0 7.5 5.3 0.7 57.2 58.0 6.2 7.1 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 7.0 6.9 7.6 1.4 64.4 63.6 5.0 5.8 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.8 1.6 5.5 0.8 58.8 58.6 0.2 1.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 9.0 8.9 7.2 1.3 65.4 62.4 7.5 7.8 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.5 6.3 1.0 60.7 59.7 6.4 7.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 8.9 8.1 6.4 1.1 63.5 60.7 7.0 7.7 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 8.9 8.2 5.9 0.9 60.8 59.7 6.9 7.6 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.1 5.8 0.6 56.4 56.8 7.1 8.0 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 8.3 8.6 7.7 1.2 61.5 61.3 6.3 7.9 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 6.9 7.1 6.6 1.8 71.4 69.1 5.4 6.3 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 9.3 8.7 5.9 0.9 61.1 59.5 7.6 8.3 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 6.7 6.5 7.5 1.4 64.3 63.7 4.6 5.4 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.2 6.1 0.8 58.4 57.8 4.6 5.0 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 7.7 7.6 8.0 1.6 65.9 64.7 5.7 6.5 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.9 4.3 0.4 52.5 54.6 3.2 4.5 5.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 8.5 8.6 7.7 1.3 66.1 62.9 6.5 7.6 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.9 7.6 1.4 63.7 63.7 5.3 5.8 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 7.8 7.7 8.3 1.6 65.8 64.7 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.1 7.5 1.2 61.5 60.7 7.1 8.4 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 7.7 7.2 6.5 1.3 65.5 62.9 5.8 6.5 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.3 5.0 0.5 55.1 56.2 6.4 7.2 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 8.5 8.3 7.2 1.2 64.8 62.1 6.5 7.3 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 7.8 7.8 6.0 1.7 70.1 66.7 5.9 6.7 7.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.8 5.5 0.6 55.2 56.0 3.5 4.3 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.4 7.8 1.5 65.2 64.2 5.4 6.2 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------