***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 6.3 6.4 6.0 1.6 65.2 62.4 2.5 4.0 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.7 5.8 1.5 62.0 60.7 1.9 3.7 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.2 6.3 1.6 61.8 61.2 3.0 5.4 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 2.0 1.6 3.5 1.6 63.9 62.4 -1.1 -0.3 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.8 4.3 1.4 61.1 60.7 3.0 4.9 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.2 4.2 1.5 63.3 61.5 2.5 4.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.5 5.8 1.5 63.9 61.3 1.7 3.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.5 1.1 4.1 1.3 60.7 59.9 -1.5 0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.1 5.1 1.4 59.9 59.8 3.1 5.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.0 4.6 1.3 60.4 59.4 2.8 4.9 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 7.5 6.8 4.4 1.4 61.0 60.9 3.1 5.2 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.6 6.3 4.3 1.4 61.8 61.2 2.8 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 7.4 5.8 4.0 1.4 62.5 61.2 3.4 5.1 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.2 5.5 1.1 56.3 56.9 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.2 4.4 1.8 65.6 63.1 3.4 4.5 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 7.8 7.4 4.2 1.5 63.5 61.7 3.8 5.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.0 5.7 1.4 60.6 59.5 1.7 3.5 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.8 4.6 1.1 58.9 57.9 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.0 6.0 1.5 60.8 60.5 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.2 3.1 1.1 58.8 58.0 0.8 2.6 4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.4 7.0 5.7 1.5 61.3 60.8 3.4 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.2 5.6 1.3 58.9 58.5 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.0 6.3 1.5 59.4 59.9 3.0 4.2 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.7 5.4 1.2 58.1 58.2 3.6 5.6 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.6 4.5 1.6 64.9 62.1 2.9 4.2 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 6.7 5.9 3.8 1.3 62.5 61.5 3.0 4.3 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.3 6.9 5.5 1.6 66.3 62.4 3.1 5.3 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.0 5.8 4.0 1.7 64.7 62.4 3.6 4.5 6.1 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.9 3.0 4.1 1.0 58.8 57.3 0.4 2.3 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.5 5.8 1.6 63.0 61.3 2.1 4.1 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------