***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.2 8.1 7.1 1.5 61.9 61.7 3.7 5.7 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 6.8 6.4 7.1 1.8 64.4 63.1 3.5 5.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.9 8.2 7.5 1.6 60.7 61.5 3.9 6.3 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 3.1 3.3 4.8 1.6 63.2 62.3 -0.3 2.7 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.3 8.3 5.6 1.2 59.8 59.9 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.6 4.9 0.8 56.3 56.4 4.2 7.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 6.5 6.0 7.0 1.7 64.3 63.0 3.3 4.6 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.9 1.6 4.8 0.6 52.8 55.3 -1.0 1.3 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.9 6.3 1.2 57.7 59.2 5.0 7.1 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.5 5.5 0.8 54.5 56.7 4.1 5.8 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.8 5.5 1.1 57.0 58.5 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.4 5.1 0.8 54.8 56.5 4.2 7.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.1 4.7 0.6 54.2 55.3 4.3 6.6 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.7 6.5 1.0 54.9 57.7 3.6 7.0 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.8 5.7 1.7 63.4 63.8 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.8 8.4 5.2 1.0 57.8 58.2 4.7 7.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 6.0 5.8 7.0 1.7 64.9 63.4 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.3 5.4 0.7 53.2 55.2 3.3 4.1 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 7.4 7.2 7.4 1.8 64.2 62.8 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.4 3.5 0.3 50.3 52.7 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.6 8.0 6.9 1.4 59.7 60.6 4.3 6.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.9 7.0 1.7 64.8 63.1 3.5 5.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 7.3 6.8 7.6 1.7 62.2 61.8 3.8 5.1 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.2 6.5 1.0 55.7 57.8 3.9 7.1 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.4 5.7 1.4 61.8 61.3 3.9 5.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.9 4.3 0.4 50.4 53.6 5.0 5.9 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.4 8.2 6.6 1.4 61.9 61.4 4.2 5.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.6 7.5 5.3 1.6 62.5 62.5 4.9 6.2 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.0 4.7 0.5 51.6 53.7 1.6 3.9 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 6.7 6.6 7.1 1.7 63.1 62.6 3.5 5.0 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------