***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.8 9.4 8.6 1.7 62.1 61.5 6.2 7.2 9.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.6 9.4 8.7 1.8 65.2 63.0 5.6 7.0 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.9 9.2 1.8 63.5 62.4 6.9 9.2 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.4 6.5 2.2 66.0 64.3 0.7 2.4 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.0 7.5 1.8 61.4 62.0 6.1 8.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.0 6.7 1.5 58.0 60.6 6.1 7.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.4 9.1 8.6 1.8 63.8 62.7 5.1 6.8 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.2 2.7 7.0 1.6 61.3 61.2 0.6 1.3 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.5 8.4 1.8 63.7 62.2 6.7 9.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.2 7.7 1.7 60.7 61.2 6.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.4 7.8 1.6 58.5 60.6 6.3 8.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.5 7.3 1.6 60.7 61.1 6.5 8.6 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.5 7.3 1.3 55.3 58.4 6.2 8.3 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 9.0 9.7 8.9 1.8 63.5 61.6 7.2 8.5 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 7.5 7.4 7.7 2.3 70.6 66.5 6.3 7.1 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.9 7.3 1.5 57.8 60.0 6.6 9.1 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.2 8.3 8.4 1.8 65.9 63.0 4.5 6.7 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.8 7.5 1.6 60.7 60.5 4.2 6.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 9.0 9.1 8.9 1.9 65.3 63.0 6.2 7.8 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.8 6.8 6.0 1.5 61.0 60.3 2.5 4.6 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.9 8.9 1.7 62.4 61.9 6.7 8.7 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.3 8.8 8.5 1.7 65.2 62.5 5.5 6.7 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.9 9.2 1.9 66.2 62.7 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.5 8.7 1.7 62.2 61.1 7.4 9.5 10.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.9 8.5 7.6 1.7 61.9 61.7 5.8 7.5 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.1 6.7 1.5 59.2 61.5 6.6 7.8 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 9.1 10.5 8.2 1.6 61.9 61.0 6.5 8.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.1 7.2 2.2 67.2 64.4 6.4 7.3 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.6 6.9 1.5 59.9 59.5 2.8 5.7 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.8 9.1 8.8 1.8 63.8 62.7 5.9 7.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------