***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9.5 8.7 9.1 0.7 48.0 52.5 6.4 8.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 8.9 8.2 9.4 0.9 49.6 54.9 6.3 8.3 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 10.6 10.1 9.9 1.0 51.1 55.0 7.4 10.0 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 4.4 5.1 6.5 1.2 58.7 58.4 1.9 3.7 6.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 10.7 10.3 7.5 0.3 48.4 50.0 6.6 10.4 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.6 6.9 5.3 -0.9 38.8 42.0 6.8 9.0 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.1 9.0 0.6 47.9 52.4 6.1 8.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 3.0 2.0 6.3 -0.2 43.2 46.1 0.7 2.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 11.1 10.7 8.8 0.7 49.8 52.3 8.1 10.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 10.6 9.3 7.5 0.1 45.9 49.2 6.5 10.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 10.9 10.1 8.0 0.3 47.5 49.5 7.6 10.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 11.1 10.0 6.8 -0.1 45.1 46.6 7.1 10.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 11.0 8.9 7.1 -0.7 41.2 42.1 8.0 10.6 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 11.4 11.0 9.7 1.0 54.7 55.2 8.5 10.5 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.0 9.3 8.6 1.6 62.0 61.3 4.7 7.4 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 11.2 10.1 7.0 -0.3 43.9 45.4 8.0 10.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 8.7 7.7 8.8 0.8 49.0 53.9 6.1 8.2 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 8.3 7.5 6.9 -0.1 44.7 47.3 5.2 7.8 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 9.6 9.0 9.7 1.1 51.7 55.9 6.6 8.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 6.9 4.6 4.7 -1.1 36.9 40.0 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 10.8 10.4 9.4 0.7 49.7 52.6 7.0 10.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 9.8 9.4 9.3 1.0 51.2 55.4 7.0 9.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 9.4 9.1 10.0 1.4 54.0 57.0 6.9 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 11.4 10.8 9.2 0.7 49.7 52.8 7.9 10.8 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 9.5 8.9 8.0 0.4 49.2 51.0 6.2 9.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 9.6 7.3 5.3 -1.1 37.0 38.6 7.2 9.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 10.1 9.3 8.5 0.3 46.3 49.7 7.6 9.5 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.0 7.5 1.2 58.6 58.3 6.1 7.9 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 6.3 5.5 6.1 -0.5 41.1 44.5 4.2 5.8 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 8.9 8.3 9.4 0.9 49.5 54.2 6.4 8.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------