***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 0.1 1.0 1.6 1.5 62.8 62.7 -1.4 -0.3 1.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 -0.1 0.2 1.4 1.5 63.6 62.3 -1.8 -0.4 0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.4 62.6 62.2 -0.3 1.0 2.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 -2.2 -2.1 -1.3 1.5 61.9 62.5 -5.7 -3.2 -1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 -0.5 -0.4 -0.9 1.3 61.5 60.9 -2.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -0.9 -1.0 -3.1 0.8 54.2 56.9 -2.6 -1.3 -0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -0.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 64.2 62.3 -1.4 -0.4 0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -4.6 -5.0 -2.8 0.7 53.5 55.5 -6.4 -5.1 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 0.2 0.3 -0.5 1.2 60.6 60.3 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 -0.8 -1.1 -2.1 0.9 56.2 57.4 -1.9 -1.4 -0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 -0.7 -0.7 -1.6 1.1 59.2 59.4 -2.2 -1.1 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.0 -2.2 0.9 55.6 57.0 -2.6 -1.5 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 -0.7 -0.8 -2.6 0.8 54.7 56.8 -2.5 -1.3 0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 0.2 0.7 -1.0 0.9 57.7 58.1 -1.0 -0.2 1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 1.6 63.7 64.1 -2.4 -1.4 0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 0.0 0.0 -2.1 1.1 57.4 58.7 -1.7 -0.5 0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 -0.4 -0.2 1.5 1.5 63.7 62.5 -2.0 -0.7 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -1.7 -1.8 -3.0 0.7 54.0 55.2 -3.3 -1.9 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 -0.1 0.3 1.3 1.5 63.5 62.5 -1.3 -0.4 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -4.3 -5.3 -4.3 0.3 49.4 52.4 -6.9 -5.1 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 -0.4 -0.4 0.7 1.4 61.8 61.4 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 -0.2 0.3 1.2 1.5 63.9 63.2 -1.8 -0.5 0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 -0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 62.4 62.3 -1.3 -0.3 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3 1.0 57.6 58.2 -1.6 -1.2 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 62.1 62.1 -1.6 -0.3 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -0.2 0.0 -2.9 0.5 52.6 54.3 -2.1 -0.4 0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 -0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 62.4 62.2 -1.6 -0.4 0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -1.9 -1.0 -1.2 1.5 61.0 62.2 -3.7 -2.3 -0.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -2.9 -3.5 0.5 52.8 53.7 -4.5 -3.2 -1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 -0.1 0.4 1.4 1.5 63.3 62.4 -1.3 -0.5 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------