***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 1.8 1.0 2.5 0.4 48.7 49.3 -0.7 1.3 2.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 1.8 1.4 2.5 0.6 48.8 51.7 -0.6 1.4 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 3.0 2.3 2.7 0.6 48.5 50.3 1.1 2.6 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 -1.9 -2.2 0.4 0.7 49.7 51.7 -5.4 -2.2 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 94 6 100 0.6 0.2 0.9 0.3 47.3 47.9 -1.1 0.4 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 0.2 -0.9 -2.2 -0.4 40.8 41.3 -1.4 -0.2 2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 2.0 1.4 2.3 0.5 48.3 50.8 -0.6 1.5 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 -3.1 -3.9 -1.8 -0.1 42.5 43.8 -5.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 98 2 100 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 47.2 48.6 -0.2 1.5 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 92 8 100 0.5 -0.2 -0.9 0.2 44.6 46.2 -1.9 0.2 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 95 5 100 0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.2 46.0 46.8 -1.2 0.2 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 -0.3 -1.0 -0.9 -0.1 43.0 44.5 -2.0 -0.6 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 0.3 -0.5 -0.8 0.1 45.6 46.1 -1.4 -0.1 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 96 4 100 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.7 47.6 50.1 0.2 0.7 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 1.4 1.1 2.0 0.7 49.3 51.8 0.1 1.1 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 1.4 1.0 -0.4 0.1 46.2 46.1 -0.6 1.1 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 1.7 1.2 2.4 0.7 49.1 52.8 -0.2 1.3 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 -0.6 -2.0 -1.2 0.2 44.7 46.6 -2.2 -0.7 0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 2.0 1.6 2.4 0.6 48.4 50.9 -0.5 1.6 2.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 -2.5 -5.0 -2.9 -0.5 38.4 41.4 -5.7 -2.8 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 1.1 0.9 2.1 0.6 49.0 50.9 -0.8 0.9 2.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 1.5 1.2 2.7 0.8 48.4 53.0 -0.5 1.2 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 0.9 0.3 2.0 0.4 46.8 48.3 -0.7 0.7 2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 93 7 100 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.8 48.6 50.5 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 1.7 1.2 2.0 0.3 47.9 49.0 -0.8 1.5 2.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 1.4 -1.2 -1.5 -0.7 38.2 39.3 -1.3 1.0 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 1.6 0.7 2.3 0.4 48.7 49.7 -0.7 0.9 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.8 49.0 52.3 -1.7 0.0 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 -1.3 -2.3 -2.4 -0.1 42.1 43.7 -4.2 -1.7 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 2.3 1.9 2.5 0.5 48.5 50.2 -0.3 1.9 3.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------