***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 39.9 53.1 62.3 123.3 69.6 62.9 24.7 36.1 49.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 37.4 42.1 56.9 127.0 70.2 65.1 28.6 34.5 40.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 44.1 53.3 61.7 123.7 69.3 63.5 24.2 39.5 52.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 68.7 75.4 76.9 135.9 76.7 70.7 39.2 49.6 65.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 47.7 49.1 66.8 119.1 65.6 63.0 33.2 44.2 49.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 41.4 44.9 63.4 123.1 69.7 63.8 29.3 38.3 44.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 38.9 47.9 56.5 128.3 69.8 65.0 24.7 35.7 41.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 74.2 79.6 68.1 113.1 63.3 60.2 47.9 69.6 81.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 42.2 54.0 67.0 118.9 65.3 63.1 25.7 38.4 54.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 49.0 64.4 67.2 113.3 62.0 60.1 33.7 44.7 65.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 43.7 63.7 64.7 116.9 66.0 62.1 33.8 38.3 63.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 54.2 75.1 63.6 115.7 66.2 61.6 31.7 49.0 74.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 47.4 54.4 62.7 112.5 62.7 58.8 37.1 43.7 58.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 67.4 72.8 70.5 115.9 63.3 61.1 40.4 62.8 76.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 95.3 115.0 79.9 149.0 81.7 73.8 31.8 59.3 84.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 44.2 52.6 63.6 117.7 66.8 62.1 31.4 40.1 52.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 41.6 50.3 55.8 128.8 70.4 65.4 23.3 39.2 45.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 51.7 52.2 68.0 110.8 61.5 58.4 35.6 47.3 61.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 40.6 54.2 57.8 124.6 69.7 64.4 26.2 35.2 51.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 54.8 60.3 84.0 109.0 60.0 57.0 40.5 49.7 63.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 45.8 51.2 65.5 121.4 67.2 63.4 33.4 42.8 50.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 47.6 58.2 58.3 125.3 70.9 64.3 27.3 42.8 54.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 45.1 53.6 60.3 121.3 68.7 63.4 26.0 40.4 49.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 59.3 67.5 65.8 115.7 62.6 60.7 33.2 55.3 76.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 43.1 49.1 69.5 122.0 66.8 62.9 24.4 40.0 49.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 47.1 54.0 63.8 115.8 65.7 60.0 35.4 44.9 54.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 43.2 54.4 64.1 121.2 67.1 61.6 27.3 39.2 53.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 66.3 78.0 74.1 139.9 78.3 71.2 27.4 42.2 61.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 75.5 80.3 71.5 108.8 60.0 56.9 46.3 66.9 88.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 39.6 49.2 58.3 126.5 70.2 64.6 22.0 35.6 44.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------