***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.2 11.7 90.4 57.2 46.6 3.4 5.1 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.0 10.6 95.8 60.1 48.5 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.7 11.7 91.3 56.6 46.7 4.9 7.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.4 13.3 13.6 96.0 58.8 48.1 7.1 9.8 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.3 11.0 13.4 95.0 58.0 47.5 8.3 9.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.6 12.8 98.5 56.1 48.6 3.7 5.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.2 10.0 10.6 98.7 61.3 49.7 3.5 7.0 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.9 18.2 14.0 93.7 52.6 45.8 12.3 17.8 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.0 9.5 13.7 93.9 57.2 47.4 6.1 8.6 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.1 14.3 14.2 94.6 54.2 46.8 8.3 13.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.7 13.0 95.9 55.6 47.1 7.7 10.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.6 13.5 12.8 95.1 53.9 46.6 8.8 13.1 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.1 11.6 13.1 97.0 56.9 48.2 7.1 8.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.5 16.2 14.3 95.0 57.2 47.1 9.6 14.8 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.8 13.5 98.3 60.9 48.7 2.3 6.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.0 8.8 12.8 96.7 55.8 48.0 5.5 8.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.6 10.2 95.8 62.1 48.8 3.7 6.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 12.9 14.5 93.7 53.3 46.2 6.5 12.1 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 7.8 10.7 93.0 58.8 47.6 3.7 7.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.3 12.5 17.7 91.9 54.7 45.4 8.1 10.1 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.8 9.2 12.8 92.1 57.9 46.8 5.7 7.8 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.1 10.3 10.6 92.1 60.0 48.0 4.7 7.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.9 8.5 11.2 89.9 57.6 46.6 6.0 7.8 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.3 16.0 13.4 92.9 55.0 46.6 6.6 11.4 19.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.8 6.9 13.3 92.1 58.8 47.2 3.8 6.2 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.2 10.2 12.6 92.2 54.2 46.3 8.2 9.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.3 6.8 12.2 91.4 58.7 47.0 2.8 5.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.0 13.1 98.7 59.7 48.6 3.6 6.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.2 19.1 15.2 92.5 52.8 45.3 13.6 18.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.7 11.0 95.3 58.6 47.9 2.9 8.4 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------