***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.8 16.5 112.2 62.1 54.5 4.3 7.9 12.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.8 11.1 14.9 119.5 64.3 57.0 2.7 8.5 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.2 15.2 16.0 110.7 61.7 54.7 2.4 6.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.7 17.2 109.0 62.0 55.3 4.6 7.7 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.7 16.9 104.2 60.7 54.2 3.9 11.3 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.9 11.4 15.2 111.2 65.4 56.9 1.0 5.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.1 10.3 14.7 119.1 65.5 56.9 3.9 7.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 11.7 15.8 16.4 97.6 60.6 52.2 4.9 9.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.0 17.7 105.2 60.1 54.0 2.1 7.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.2 12.4 17.4 101.3 59.7 52.4 3.2 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.4 15.8 101.4 60.8 53.4 1.9 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.7 13.5 14.9 98.4 61.2 53.5 1.9 7.8 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.1 10.7 15.3 102.4 61.6 54.9 3.4 6.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.1 17.4 96.6 57.1 51.5 4.2 12.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.1 16.8 114.0 64.2 56.2 0.9 4.0 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.6 15.1 101.5 61.7 54.6 2.3 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.7 14.2 14.4 120.1 63.9 58.0 4.3 7.9 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.0 11.5 17.6 97.4 58.4 50.9 2.8 8.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.7 13.6 15.0 116.0 63.0 56.4 3.0 7.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.6 20.6 93.8 59.0 49.2 3.7 6.7 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.2 12.6 17.1 107.6 61.0 54.5 5.4 10.0 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.7 16.0 15.5 119.1 64.6 57.1 2.4 9.9 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.6 15.3 107.6 61.9 54.7 2.6 6.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.8 16.8 99.5 59.5 52.3 4.5 11.3 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.6 10.3 18.0 110.3 60.4 54.5 2.1 6.8 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.4 14.8 103.8 63.7 55.9 2.3 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 11.2 17.0 110.7 61.6 54.1 5.0 5.8 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.1 16.0 109.1 63.6 55.8 0.4 4.0 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.9 18.3 95.3 58.1 49.9 7.1 9.6 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.1 12.2 15.4 117.7 64.9 56.2 4.5 6.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------