***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 10.4 12.5 19.0 144.1 72.8 66.1 3.5 5.4 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 11.2 14.6 17.9 146.7 75.3 65.5 1.8 4.9 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 14.6 16.6 19.1 148.9 73.6 68.3 4.0 6.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 22.6 26.9 25.0 170.2 79.5 71.9 6.1 12.1 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 17.2 20.6 21.6 154.7 76.1 69.9 2.3 8.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 13.5 16.6 19.7 151.1 75.0 66.7 2.7 6.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 10.1 11.8 17.9 149.3 76.3 65.7 3.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 19.1 22.8 21.1 143.6 74.6 66.8 7.3 10.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 13.0 17.7 20.2 147.0 74.5 67.8 2.0 4.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 16.9 21.6 20.5 143.4 73.7 67.2 3.3 7.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 18.7 19.0 20.7 147.4 73.7 68.2 3.7 7.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 21.4 22.5 19.8 143.4 73.3 66.5 8.0 10.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 13.2 14.0 19.2 138.7 71.2 64.4 4.9 7.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 14.8 18.6 21.3 141.7 71.9 67.3 3.7 8.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 29.6 41.5 25.4 175.2 79.3 71.2 3.5 12.2 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 16.4 19.8 20.1 148.6 73.9 67.8 3.6 9.4 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 9.7 12.2 18.3 154.7 75.8 65.9 1.7 4.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 16.8 19.9 20.6 141.9 73.8 67.4 6.3 8.2 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 13.1 15.2 17.9 143.9 73.9 65.5 1.2 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 21.2 25.6 27.0 143.0 75.3 66.8 6.7 14.6 24.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 16.6 14.5 19.9 148.1 73.5 67.9 4.0 7.8 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 13.1 13.3 18.7 150.6 74.0 65.0 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 11.0 12.3 18.4 142.6 70.9 66.3 2.8 6.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 17.6 16.1 19.8 142.6 73.0 67.8 3.5 9.3 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 13.8 14.2 22.2 148.7 74.0 67.6 3.0 7.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 12.0 10.5 20.6 144.9 71.3 66.3 3.7 7.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 11.4 14.0 19.7 140.3 71.7 65.0 2.3 5.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 21.6 27.1 24.0 171.7 79.2 71.8 6.0 10.0 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 22.8 26.7 22.0 139.6 73.1 66.9 8.2 12.9 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 11.8 13.8 18.1 146.1 75.0 65.8 3.0 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------