***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 7.5 15.7 15.1 155.6 78.4 68.7 2.3 6.0 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 11.7 15.5 13.5 148.9 77.7 69.4 2.2 5.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 10.8 13.4 14.9 152.3 76.0 67.4 2.1 6.8 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 19.9 27.3 21.1 176.8 80.9 75.6 2.8 10.5 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 8.4 18.3 14.9 126.3 69.8 64.4 2.5 6.3 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 20.5 21.5 15.7 133.4 71.1 68.1 4.0 12.4 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 12.5 15.4 13.3 148.6 76.5 69.3 1.4 6.8 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 21.3 30.4 16.7 120.6 68.9 64.8 4.8 19.5 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 11.4 21.0 15.5 137.7 72.5 66.7 1.3 9.4 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 8.9 16.7 15.2 118.6 68.7 63.1 2.5 7.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 9.9 18.9 15.2 125.3 69.5 65.7 2.4 7.4 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 20.1 18.0 16.2 128.2 70.8 67.1 1.8 6.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 9.8 17.7 15.1 112.4 64.2 62.7 2.6 7.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 22.2 30.8 17.4 137.3 74.9 64.7 4.9 8.8 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 29.3 43.2 24.1 228.5 87.7 83.4 2.9 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 10.3 15.7 15.6 126.1 67.9 65.7 1.0 8.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 13.9 17.2 12.9 146.0 76.1 68.5 2.0 7.5 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 10.9 15.4 15.3 115.4 65.4 61.3 2.9 8.9 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 12.4 15.4 14.2 149.3 78.2 68.6 2.7 7.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 13.3 17.9 18.7 112.6 64.7 61.2 2.1 10.8 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 10.4 15.6 15.7 146.7 75.0 67.4 2.5 8.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 16.2 19.5 13.5 140.5 74.8 67.1 3.4 8.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 13.5 18.0 15.4 151.9 79.1 67.8 3.5 6.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 10.3 17.6 15.8 135.4 71.5 64.4 2.3 7.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 7.5 14.6 16.0 141.8 72.2 66.8 1.9 5.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 12.4 18.5 15.8 122.5 65.5 64.3 2.6 10.5 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 47 53 100 12.1 15.7 15.3 149.5 75.1 68.3 1.8 4.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 19.2 25.0 21.1 190.9 82.2 77.9 2.8 6.6 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 16.4 28.8 16.0 112.4 64.5 60.6 5.0 13.5 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 12.4 15.9 13.9 151.9 77.5 69.6 1.8 5.8 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------