***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.4 6.0 5.4 -1.2 32.3 38.3 6.0 6.9 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.6 4.9 5.4 -1.2 31.2 38.4 5.2 6.1 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.0 6.9 5.8 -1.2 33.3 39.2 6.9 7.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 0.2 0.2 1.9 -2.0 24.2 30.7 1.3 2.5 3.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 5.8 7.1 4.0 -1.2 31.0 37.7 7.1 7.8 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.5 4.1 -0.6 39.4 44.4 6.4 7.1 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.6 5.0 5.4 -1.1 31.8 39.1 5.2 6.2 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.1 0.4 4.4 -0.5 41.8 45.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.6 5.0 -1.0 34.9 39.7 7.6 7.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.6 6.8 4.7 -0.8 39.5 42.4 6.6 7.3 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.9 7.3 4.6 -0.9 36.6 40.6 7.0 7.9 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.1 7.3 4.6 -0.4 41.2 45.3 7.0 7.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.6 5.0 -0.3 42.9 47.3 7.2 7.9 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.2 6.9 5.4 -1.2 34.9 39.4 6.6 7.6 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 4.4 5.3 2.9 -2.0 23.4 29.8 5.6 6.4 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.5 8.0 4.3 -0.8 37.0 41.7 7.8 8.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.0 4.7 5.1 -1.3 30.7 36.7 4.8 5.7 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.0 4.8 -0.7 40.8 43.8 4.6 5.1 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.9 5.9 5.5 -1.2 31.9 39.0 5.9 6.7 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.3 3.9 -0.1 46.3 49.2 3.2 5.0 6.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 6.1 6.7 5.4 -1.2 32.1 37.7 6.8 7.6 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.7 5.4 5.2 -1.3 31.1 36.8 5.5 6.0 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.1 5.9 5.9 -1.1 34.2 40.4 5.7 6.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.4 5.6 -0.9 37.7 41.4 7.3 8.4 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.9 5.4 4.0 -1.4 29.2 35.9 5.9 6.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.9 7.2 4.6 0.0 47.8 50.8 6.5 7.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 5.9 6.5 5.1 -1.1 32.7 38.8 6.6 7.5 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 4.6 5.8 2.5 -1.9 25.3 31.1 6.1 6.6 7.6 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.1 4.6 -0.4 43.4 46.5 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.8 5.4 5.4 -1.2 31.8 39.1 5.6 6.4 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------