***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.8 4.1 0.0 48.4 51.0 2.4 5.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.0 4.1 0.0 48.8 51.1 1.7 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.2 4.6 0.2 52.1 51.9 3.2 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.7 -0.4 1.6 0.0 48.4 50.5 -1.1 -0.2 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.1 2.8 0.2 50.0 51.8 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.0 2.8 0.4 52.4 53.8 2.9 3.8 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.6 4.1 0.0 48.5 50.8 1.3 3.7 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.4 0.4 3.0 0.5 54.4 54.2 -1.5 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.0 3.7 0.3 50.4 52.5 3.1 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.8 3.4 0.4 53.1 53.4 3.1 4.6 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.1 3.0 0.3 51.5 52.8 3.5 5.0 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.8 3.0 0.4 53.1 53.8 3.0 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.8 2.7 0.4 52.9 54.0 3.9 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.7 4.4 0.4 53.0 53.0 2.9 5.5 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.4 2.3 0.0 48.8 50.2 3.7 4.4 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.0 2.7 0.3 50.3 52.5 3.9 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.3 3.4 4.1 -0.1 48.0 50.8 2.0 3.4 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.2 3.6 0.5 53.7 53.5 2.3 3.0 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.5 4.3 0.1 50.2 51.6 2.3 4.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.4 2.4 0.6 54.6 55.4 0.6 2.7 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.1 4.0 0.2 50.9 51.8 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.0 4.2 0.0 49.7 51.5 2.3 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.2 4.7 0.2 52.8 52.5 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.8 4.3 0.4 53.4 53.1 3.0 6.0 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.3 2.7 0.0 48.1 50.7 2.6 4.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.2 2.8 0.6 52.5 55.6 3.2 3.8 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.0 4.6 3.7 0.0 48.7 50.8 3.3 5.2 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.8 2.0 0.0 48.3 50.5 3.5 4.9 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.8 2.3 3.2 0.5 53.2 53.8 -0.4 2.0 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.3 4.1 0.0 49.6 51.2 1.7 4.4 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------