***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 4.8 5.2 5.1 -2.2 27.3 33.8 5.3 8.1 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 4.6 4.9 5.0 -2.3 29.5 33.5 5.7 7.6 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 6.2 6.4 5.5 -2.3 29.8 34.6 7.1 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 0.1 -0.3 1.3 -3.2 20.6 28.3 1.2 2.7 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 5.9 6.2 3.9 -2.1 30.8 35.0 6.2 9.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.9 7.0 4.2 -1.1 36.9 42.4 6.4 8.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 5.0 4.4 5.1 -2.1 29.8 34.2 4.7 7.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 0.0 0.6 4.4 -1.1 38.3 42.6 0.2 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 6.6 6.7 4.9 -2.0 31.1 36.3 7.1 9.9 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 6.1 7.7 4.6 -1.6 35.5 39.8 7.0 8.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 5.9 6.5 4.7 -1.7 34.1 38.8 6.4 8.8 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.8 7.4 4.8 -1.0 38.5 43.7 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.4 5.6 -0.6 43.0 46.6 6.6 8.5 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 6.3 6.8 5.1 -2.3 28.6 36.1 7.7 9.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 5.1 4.5 2.5 -3.2 18.8 27.5 6.0 7.4 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 7.1 7.1 4.5 -1.4 34.9 40.8 6.9 9.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 4.1 3.4 4.7 -2.4 27.4 31.7 4.5 7.2 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.2 5.7 4.6 -1.5 35.9 41.0 5.3 6.4 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 4.9 6.1 5.2 -2.3 29.6 34.0 6.1 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.2 3.6 4.0 -0.8 40.7 45.2 2.9 5.7 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 6.3 5.6 5.2 -2.3 27.7 34.1 7.0 9.4 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 4.2 5.0 4.8 -2.5 27.2 31.6 5.3 7.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 5.3 5.8 5.5 -2.2 29.8 35.2 6.4 7.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 7.2 7.8 5.3 -2.0 33.2 37.9 7.8 10.7 11.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 4.9 5.1 3.7 -2.5 26.8 31.6 6.1 8.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.6 7.7 5.2 -0.1 44.5 49.3 6.3 7.9 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 6.1 5.8 4.8 -2.1 30.3 34.4 5.9 9.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 5.3 4.8 2.1 -3.1 20.7 29.5 6.2 7.5 8.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.4 4.5 -1.2 38.1 43.5 3.4 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 4.8 5.3 5.2 -2.2 29.2 34.2 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------