***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.6 6.7 7.1 -2.0 35.4 34.5 6.2 8.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.5 7.1 7.2 -1.8 35.4 35.3 6.5 8.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.9 8.1 7.4 -2.0 34.3 34.4 7.1 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 -1.1 -0.6 2.2 -3.7 22.4 25.2 1.2 4.2 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.6 6.5 5.4 -2.3 33.4 33.5 6.5 9.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.1 7.3 5.2 -1.3 40.6 39.3 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.2 6.7 7.3 -1.5 37.3 36.7 6.3 8.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 2.9 1.4 5.6 -1.3 39.7 38.2 1.0 2.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.1 8.2 6.5 -2.1 33.5 34.2 8.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.3 8.1 6.0 -1.8 37.0 36.3 7.3 9.6 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.9 8.9 6.3 -2.0 35.3 35.6 7.9 9.9 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 10.2 8.8 6.1 -1.2 40.4 39.1 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 10.7 9.0 7.4 -0.8 42.4 41.8 7.4 10.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.5 8.3 6.7 -2.5 32.8 33.3 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 3.8 3.8 4.0 -3.5 20.3 23.5 4.6 7.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.2 8.4 5.8 -1.9 35.9 36.5 7.9 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.1 6.3 6.7 -1.9 34.9 34.3 6.1 8.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 8.7 6.3 5.8 -1.7 37.5 36.8 5.6 8.1 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.8 7.7 7.3 -1.9 34.5 35.0 7.0 8.9 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 7.1 5.2 5.5 -0.6 40.8 40.6 3.8 6.7 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.9 6.7 7.0 -2.3 32.6 33.1 6.9 10.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 7.0 6.7 -2.1 33.8 33.5 6.8 9.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.7 7.2 7.3 -1.9 33.6 35.2 6.9 8.8 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.5 9.0 7.0 -2.0 35.4 35.2 7.6 10.7 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.7 5.8 5.8 -2.3 34.1 32.9 5.7 8.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 9.4 8.6 6.5 -0.1 42.5 43.5 6.9 9.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.2 8.3 6.9 -1.8 37.1 35.9 7.1 9.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 5.0 4.8 3.0 -3.7 21.4 24.3 5.4 8.8 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 7.3 5.5 6.0 -1.1 39.9 39.0 3.7 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.4 7.2 7.3 -1.7 35.8 35.7 6.5 8.6 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------