***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 1.1 0.6 0.4 -0.5 40.0 45.6 -0.8 0.7 1.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.7 34.5 43.0 -0.8 0.1 1.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 2.4 1.6 0.4 -0.5 40.1 45.7 1.2 2.1 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -5.4 -3.9 -2.9 -1.1 31.3 37.9 -3.8 -3.5 -2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 -1.1 -0.3 -1.6 -0.5 38.6 45.1 -1.3 0.1 1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -2.0 -0.8 -2.9 0.1 49.5 53.0 -1.7 -0.8 0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -0.9 -0.8 0.1 -0.7 35.0 43.5 -0.8 0.1 1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -6.1 -4.5 -2.4 0.3 50.9 55.2 -5.6 -4.7 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -0.4 0.5 -1.1 -0.2 44.2 49.2 -0.2 0.9 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -0.9 0.1 -2.1 0.1 47.9 52.5 -0.8 0.1 1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -1.2 -0.5 -1.9 -0.2 42.8 48.8 -1.3 0.1 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -2.0 -0.7 -2.0 0.2 48.4 53.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 0.4 0.1 -2.0 0.3 51.0 54.5 -1.3 0.1 0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -0.4 0.7 -1.2 -0.1 44.3 50.4 0.3 0.8 1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -1.3 -0.5 -1.6 -1.0 31.4 38.2 -0.4 0.0 0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -0.5 0.4 -2.3 -0.2 42.3 48.6 -0.3 0.6 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -0.9 34.1 40.9 -0.8 0.0 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -2.4 -1.3 -2.5 0.2 49.4 52.9 -2.2 -1.2 -0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 36.9 44.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -3.5 -3.6 -3.0 0.6 54.9 58.2 -5.7 -3.8 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 40.9 46.3 -0.9 0.6 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -1.1 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 35.3 42.2 -0.8 0.2 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -1.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 42.0 47.4 -0.3 0.1 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -0.8 -0.1 -1.3 0.0 46.5 50.8 -0.5 0.0 0.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 1.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 39.9 44.8 -0.7 0.6 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 0.7 -0.1 -1.8 0.6 52.3 58.1 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 1.2 0.5 0.1 -0.5 41.1 46.4 -0.2 0.9 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 -2.6 -2.1 -2.7 -1.1 30.8 38.0 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -3.6 -2.3 -2.7 0.4 52.6 55.7 -3.3 -2.5 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.6 35.8 44.4 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------