***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.1 0.1 0.4 -1.2 37.5 41.5 -0.3 1.5 2.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -1.4 34.1 38.9 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 3.4 1.1 0.4 -1.1 35.6 41.4 1.0 2.9 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -4.8 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 28.4 35.2 -3.8 -2.4 -1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -0.8 0.2 -1.4 -1.1 36.5 41.9 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 0.7 0.1 -2.3 0.2 47.7 52.4 -1.0 0.3 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -1.3 35.1 40.2 -0.4 1.4 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -3.6 -4.7 -1.8 0.1 46.0 52.2 -5.3 -4.2 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 1.9 0.9 -0.8 -0.7 39.9 45.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 1.5 0.5 -1.6 -0.3 43.4 48.9 -0.1 1.0 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 1.2 0.0 -1.3 -0.5 41.5 47.1 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 0.1 -0.9 -1.2 0.1 46.6 51.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 1.0 0.5 -0.9 0.5 51.1 55.1 -0.8 0.5 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 0.6 1.0 -1.0 -0.8 38.9 45.2 0.4 1.7 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 -1.1 -0.8 -1.6 -1.7 27.2 36.0 -0.4 0.6 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 1.8 0.8 -1.7 -0.4 42.3 48.1 0.2 1.0 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -1.6 33.5 37.8 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -0.3 -1.0 -2.0 -0.2 43.7 49.7 -1.9 -0.7 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -1.3 33.7 39.5 -0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -2.6 -3.5 -2.2 0.4 50.3 54.8 -4.4 -3.5 -2.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -0.4 0.3 0.0 -1.0 38.6 42.5 0.1 0.8 2.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -1.6 32.1 37.3 -0.4 0.5 0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 0.0 0.2 0.0 -1.1 34.7 41.9 0.2 1.1 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 1.5 0.3 -0.9 -0.6 40.5 46.4 -0.1 1.0 1.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -0.6 0.3 -0.5 -1.2 35.3 40.5 0.2 0.8 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 1.0 0.9 -0.6 1.0 56.1 59.0 -0.8 0.5 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 1.9 -0.3 0.2 -1.1 38.0 42.0 -0.6 1.0 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 -1.7 -2.1 -2.8 -1.8 28.1 36.2 -1.2 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -0.8 -1.4 -2.1 0.1 46.4 52.6 -3.4 -1.1 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 0.0 0.2 0.1 -1.3 34.5 40.0 0.0 1.5 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------