***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 1.3 0.3 2.4 -0.2 42.5 44.5 -0.4 1.0 3.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 1.7 0.5 1.8 -0.4 41.6 42.7 -0.4 1.5 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 2.8 1.9 2.3 -0.4 40.5 42.8 1.0 2.6 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -1.7 -5.2 -1.3 -1.4 34.5 35.3 -5.3 -2.3 -0.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 0.6 -0.5 0.6 -0.5 39.4 42.0 -0.8 0.1 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 -0.1 -1.0 -0.9 0.6 47.2 51.6 -1.9 -0.7 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 2.1 0.6 1.9 -0.4 42.5 44.0 -0.3 1.8 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 -3.5 -3.8 -0.2 1.0 49.5 53.1 -5.8 -3.8 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 1.8 0.2 0.9 0.0 41.7 45.0 -0.1 1.4 3.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 93 7 100 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.6 45.2 48.7 -1.6 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 0.6 -0.8 0.5 0.0 41.0 45.2 -1.4 0.1 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 -0.3 -1.0 0.4 0.7 48.4 51.9 -2.0 -0.6 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.8 52.1 54.3 -1.3 -0.3 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.3 42.8 45.8 -0.3 0.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 1.8 0.0 0.6 -0.9 35.5 37.4 -0.2 1.4 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 1.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 42.1 45.6 -0.7 0.9 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 1.9 0.4 1.2 -0.7 40.2 40.7 -0.1 1.6 2.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 96 4 100 -0.6 -1.9 -0.4 0.5 44.9 47.2 -2.3 -0.7 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 1.8 0.5 1.9 -0.3 41.7 43.4 -0.1 1.6 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 -3.3 -3.5 -0.7 1.2 51.4 54.2 -5.6 -3.5 -1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 1.5 -0.4 1.7 -0.3 41.5 43.1 -0.8 1.1 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 1.3 0.2 1.7 -0.5 41.2 42.0 -0.4 1.0 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 0.7 -0.1 2.0 0.0 42.3 45.1 -0.8 0.5 2.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 93 7 100 0.0 -0.5 0.8 0.2 43.7 45.9 -1.3 -0.3 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 1.5 -0.1 1.8 -0.3 41.2 43.6 -0.5 1.3 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.5 57.9 59.5 -1.5 0.6 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 0.9 0.1 2.2 -0.1 43.9 45.9 -0.7 0.5 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 0.3 -1.7 -0.9 -1.3 33.0 34.7 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 -1.1 -1.4 -0.6 1.1 49.8 52.5 -4.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 2.2 1.1 2.2 -0.3 42.0 43.8 -0.2 2.0 3.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------