***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 41.0 76.9 34.0 36.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 38.8 31.3 41.5 84.3 39.1 41.2 28.6 34.5 40.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 26.9 24.8 41.3 78.3 34.5 36.7 24.2 39.5 52.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 36.3 40.0 47.5 81.3 35.3 38.4 39.2 49.6 65.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 30.0 33.8 43.8 76.6 33.6 35.7 33.2 44.2 49.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 28.9 30.2 47.6 86.1 35.5 40.0 29.3 38.3 44.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 23.2 26.6 41.4 83.8 36.3 40.8 24.7 35.7 41.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 75.3 53.3 49.1 81.8 41.8 39.7 47.9 69.6 81.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 44.0 27.1 43.3 75.0 36.1 35.0 25.7 38.4 54.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 50.0 34.1 46.8 77.7 37.8 36.7 33.7 44.7 65.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 28.1 34.2 41.5 76.5 33.5 35.5 33.8 38.3 63.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 57.0 39.3 43.8 81.5 39.6 38.4 31.7 49.0 74.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 34.2 37.5 46.1 83.1 35.1 37.6 37.1 43.7 58.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 41.5 45.6 48.5 80.5 37.8 38.4 40.4 62.8 76.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 71.3 50.8 52.0 90.2 44.0 44.9 31.8 59.3 84.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 28.6 31.3 43.0 79.5 31.7 36.2 31.4 40.1 52.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 42.5 24.4 40.9 86.1 39.6 41.8 23.3 39.2 45.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 53.2 38.8 51.4 78.4 39.2 37.2 35.6 47.3 61.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 25.9 29.0 41.6 83.5 38.4 40.6 26.2 35.2 51.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 55.8 46.0 67.3 85.8 43.0 42.6 40.5 49.7 63.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 27.9 33.5 41.5 74.5 33.1 34.6 33.4 42.8 50.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 48.2 31.9 42.3 86.4 42.3 42.3 27.3 42.8 54.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 27.3 27.4 42.4 81.4 36.2 39.0 26.0 40.4 49.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 62.7 34.4 45.8 76.7 37.1 35.8 33.2 55.3 76.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 25.6 20.7 45.4 76.9 31.3 35.8 24.4 40.0 49.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 49.1 36.2 48.3 86.8 40.2 41.0 35.4 44.9 54.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 25.3 29.3 43.9 77.3 33.9 36.0 27.3 39.2 53.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 28.0 28.2 47.9 84.7 37.2 40.2 27.4 42.2 61.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 77.8 51.5 57.1 80.7 40.1 38.9 46.3 66.9 88.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 22.8 24.2 41.6 82.8 36.5 40.2 22.0 35.6 44.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------