***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 81.2 52.6 44.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.9 10.3 86.4 53.3 46.3 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.0 10.5 80.3 50.5 44.1 4.9 7.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.5 9.7 11.3 76.9 48.1 42.5 7.1 9.8 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.2 9.1 11.1 78.1 47.5 42.8 8.3 9.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.3 11.6 87.1 52.3 47.2 3.7 5.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.3 10.5 87.2 54.7 46.9 3.5 7.0 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.8 18.2 12.6 88.4 54.2 47.2 12.3 17.8 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.9 8.2 11.2 78.6 48.8 43.0 6.1 8.6 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.8 13.6 12.1 84.0 49.9 45.2 8.3 13.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.7 10.1 10.6 80.0 47.1 43.2 7.7 10.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.3 11.2 87.1 51.1 46.5 8.8 13.1 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.5 8.4 11.7 87.0 48.7 46.6 7.1 8.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.9 14.9 12.0 84.4 51.7 46.1 9.6 14.8 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.0 6.8 11.0 74.2 51.7 42.8 2.3 6.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.0 7.4 10.7 80.3 47.0 43.7 5.5 8.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.7 10.2 90.4 55.4 48.1 3.7 6.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 12.3 13.2 85.3 51.0 46.5 6.5 12.1 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 7.5 10.3 85.3 52.4 45.8 3.7 7.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.9 16.6 92.2 57.7 50.5 8.1 10.1 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.6 7.7 10.7 77.0 49.3 42.7 5.7 7.8 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.0 8.8 10.4 91.6 54.7 47.7 4.7 7.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.4 7.9 10.5 83.9 51.9 45.5 6.0 7.8 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.2 11.0 11.7 81.5 49.5 44.5 6.6 11.4 19.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.9 5.8 11.9 81.3 47.6 43.7 3.8 6.2 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.5 9.8 11.5 86.9 50.9 47.7 8.2 9.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.1 5.6 11.6 82.8 50.2 44.5 2.8 5.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.8 10.8 74.8 46.9 42.2 3.6 6.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.2 19.1 14.3 86.3 52.0 47.7 13.6 18.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.1 8.9 10.3 84.4 51.3 45.6 2.9 8.4 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------