***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 11.5 74.5 47.4 43.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.7 8.7 12.0 80.8 50.6 46.6 2.7 8.5 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.2 5.8 11.6 74.6 44.2 44.1 2.4 6.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.6 6.5 13.0 77.5 44.4 43.6 4.6 7.7 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.6 8.6 12.8 77.9 45.8 44.6 3.9 11.3 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.0 14.2 91.7 54.0 48.7 1.0 5.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.3 12.1 81.8 51.1 47.1 3.9 7.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.1 10.0 14.7 81.5 51.9 47.0 4.9 9.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.2 6.3 12.8 75.7 46.9 44.7 2.1 7.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.1 8.5 14.0 78.3 50.4 46.1 3.2 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.1 6.1 12.4 78.4 49.9 45.4 1.9 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.9 13.0 81.9 51.5 46.8 1.9 7.8 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.3 13.6 87.5 50.9 48.1 3.4 6.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.6 9.5 13.3 70.5 43.5 42.9 4.2 12.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.0 2.7 12.9 75.7 45.8 44.1 0.9 4.0 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.9 5.9 12.6 82.5 50.3 46.3 2.3 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.1 12.0 83.6 50.5 47.4 4.3 7.9 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.8 7.8 15.4 76.5 48.7 45.6 2.8 8.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.5 6.9 11.8 77.8 48.8 45.5 3.0 7.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.5 6.7 20.3 83.3 49.9 47.4 3.7 6.7 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.2 8.0 11.8 72.5 43.6 42.5 5.4 10.0 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.8 10.0 12.3 83.6 50.6 47.1 2.4 9.9 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.4 3.3 11.5 71.7 44.4 43.6 2.6 6.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.4 9.2 13.2 72.1 45.8 43.8 4.5 11.3 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.7 5.4 12.6 73.9 42.0 42.9 2.1 6.8 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.3 14.4 89.0 50.8 47.9 2.3 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 5.7 12.4 75.8 46.9 44.4 5.0 5.8 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.9 3.4 12.8 78.3 46.5 44.3 0.4 4.0 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.4 9.2 17.1 78.3 47.8 45.7 7.1 9.6 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.0 6.3 11.9 80.0 49.3 46.4 4.5 6.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------